Abstract:
:Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.
journal_name
Trends Microbioljournal_title
Trends in microbiologyauthors
Morris DH,Gostic KM,Pompei S,Bedford T,Łuksza M,Neher RA,Grenfell BT,Lässig M,McCauley JWdoi
10.1016/j.tim.2017.09.004subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-02-01 00:00:00pages
102-118issue
2eissn
0966-842Xissn
1878-4380pii
S0966-842X(17)30209-3journal_volume
26pub_type
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