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A 5.5-year surveillance of esophageal and gastric cardia precursors after a population-based screening in China.

Abstract：

BACKGROUND AND AIM:This study aimed to estimate the time to precursor progression and to identify significant predicators. METHODS:One hundred thirty-three precursor and 311 normal cases detected in a population-based screening were surveyed for 5.5 years. Precursor progression was defined as worsening of dysplasia or development of a new precursor. Time to precursor progression was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Significant predicators were estimated by Cox proportional regression. RESULTS:Of the 133 precursor cases, 33.08% (44/133) progressed or recurred, 30.08% (40/133) persisted, and 36.84% (49/133) regressed; of the 311 normal subjects, 13.50% (42/311) developed a precursor. Progression occurred significantly earlier and more frequently with ncreasing histology: with mind dysplasia (mD), 7.8% progressed by 1 year and 23.3% progressed by 5 year; with moderate dysplasia (MD), 18% progressed by 1 year and 70% progressed by 5 years; and with severe dysplasia, 50% progressed by 1 year and 100% progressed by 5 years. The difference between any two groups was significant. In addition, the marginal Lugol-stained mucosa at endoscopic mucosal resection had a progressing risk similar to that of MD, and basal cell hyperplasia was similar to that of mD. Significant predicators for precursor progression included male sex (hazard ratio and 95% CI: 2.74 (1.63-4.60)), age over 50 years (2.31 (1.33-4.02)), family history of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGIC) (1.56 (1.00-2.45)), multifocal dysplasia (5.11 (3.01-8.68)), and baseline histology. CONCLUSIONS:Sex, age, family history of UGIC, multifocal dysplasia, and baseline histology are significant independent predicators for precursor progression. Patients after endoscopic mucosal resection should be continuously surveyed.

journal_name

J Gastroenterol Hepatol

journal_title

Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology

authors

Wen D,Zhang L,Wang X,Li Y,Ma C,Liu X,Zhang J,Wen X,Yang Y,Zhang F,Wang S,Shan B

doi

10.1111/jgh.13040

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2015-12-01 00:00:00

pages

1720-5

issue

eissn

0815-9319

issn

1440-1746

journal_volume

pub_type

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A 5.5-year surveillance of esophageal and gastric cardia precursors after a population-based screening in China.