Age-specific mixing generates transient outbreak risk following critical-level vaccination.

Abstract:

:Measles elimination goals have been adopted in a range of countries, sub-regions, and regions since the WHO declared an elimination goal by 2015 or 2020. All countries attempt to achieve and maintain high coverage through routine immunization programmes. This routine strategy, however, does not ensure the elimination goal of measles. Many developed countries, such as the United States, that have succeeded in interrupting measles transmission earlier, are now experiencing outbreaks with an increasing number of cases. Using a stochastic, age-structured model of measles vaccination dynamics, we explore and characterize the transient dynamics of measles susceptibility in the years following the implementation of routine vaccination at the herd immunity threshold. We demonstrate how a population could face risks of potentially large outbreaks even within few years of vaccination. We characterize different risk profiles depending on the incidence pattern in the years prior to vaccination. These results suggest that the classic critical vaccination threshold is necessary to achieve herd immunity, but not sufficient to prevent long periods of transient, super-critical dynamics. Our results suggest the need of future work for more careful monitoring of the impacts of current immunization programmes, and developing models that take into account more complicated vaccination strategies, demographic factors, and population movements.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Bhattacharyya S,Ferrari MJ

doi

10.1017/S0950268816002016

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-01-01 00:00:00

pages

12-22

issue

1

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268816002016

journal_volume

145

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Impact of respiratory virus infection in patients with chronic chest disease.

    abstract::This study investigated the morbidity associated with respiratory virus infections in patients with well-documented chest disease, and the risk of transmission between close contacts. Patients informed the study team if they were exposed to a family member or colleague with a cold. Patients and symptomatic index cases...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800057046

    authors: Wiselka MJ,Kent J,Cookson JB,Nicholson KG

    更新日期:1993-10-01 00:00:00

  • Disease outbreaks associated with untreated recreational water use.

    abstract::Annual overviews of waterborne disease outbreaks associated with untreated recreational water use provided by authorities responsible for bathing-water quality and public health in The Netherlands revealed 742 outbreaks during 1991-2007 mainly comprising of skin conditions (48%) and gastroenteritis (31%) and involving...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810002347

    authors: Schets FM,De Roda Husman AM,Havelaar AH

    更新日期:2011-07-01 00:00:00

  • A multifactorial regression analysis of the features of community-acquired rotavirus requiring hospitalization in Spain as represented in the Minimum Basic Data Set.

    abstract::Over 10% of acute rotavirus gastroenteritis (ARGE) requires hospitalization because of complications. The aggravating factors have been widely analysed, but in an isolated way. We aimed to explore the interrelationship between the clinical and epidemiological factors that characterize rotavirus hospitalizations in Spa...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816000881

    authors: Redondo-González O,Tenías-Burillo JM

    更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00

  • Widespread detection of antibodies to Leptospira in feral swine in the United States.

    abstract::As feral swine continue to expand their geographical range and distribution across the United States, their involvement in crop damage, livestock predation, and pathogen transmission is likely to increase. Despite the relatively recent discovery of feral swine involvement in the aetiology of a variety of pathogens, th...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268814003148

    authors: Pedersen K,Pabilonia KL,Anderson TD,Bevins SN,Hicks CR,Kloft JM,Deliberto TJ

    更新日期:2015-07-01 00:00:00

  • An overview of the epidemic of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in Egypt: epidemiology and control challenges.

    abstract::Emergence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in Egypt in mid-February 2006 caused significant losses for the poultry industry and constituted a potential threat to public health. Since late 2007, there has been increasing evidence that stable lineages of H5N1 viruses are being established in ch...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810003122

    authors: Abdelwhab EM,Hafez HM

    更新日期:2011-05-01 00:00:00

  • Characterization of cholera outbreak isolates from Namibia, December 2006 to February 2007.

    abstract::We report on the first recorded outbreak of cholera in Namibia. From December 2006 to February 2007, more than 250 cases of cholera were reported from the Omusati and Kunene provinces of Namibia. However, only nine bacterial isolates were obtainable for analysis. Isolates were all identified as Vibrio cholerae O1 sero...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268807009685

    authors: Smith AM,Keddy KH,De Wee L

    更新日期:2008-09-01 00:00:00

  • Ongoing tuberculosis transmission among second-generation Ethiopian immigrants.

    abstract::Despite considerable efforts to control tuberculosis (TB) among Ethiopian immigrants in Israel, an outbreak of TB among second-generation Ethiopian immigrants that involved native Israelis occurred between January 2011 and December 2019. The aim of this article is to report on this outbreak and discuss the patient and...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268820001715

    authors: Bishara H,Green M,Chemtob D,Saffouri A,Zelikman L,Weiler-Ravell D

    更新日期:2020-08-03 00:00:00

  • The seasonality of canine births and human campylobacteriosis: a hypothesis.

    abstract::The seasonality of canine births was investigated using records from the Kennel Club and the breeding centre for the Guide Dogs for the Blind Association. In these populations a distinct seasonal pattern was found with a greater number of puppies being born in the summer months than the winter. The hypothesis that the...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800068199

    authors: Evans SJ

    更新日期:1993-04-01 00:00:00

  • Interpretation of band differences to distinguish strains of Serratia marcescens by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of XbaI DNA digests.

    abstract::The number of band differences in DNA macrorestriction profiles required to distinguish unrelated strains from an index strain varies in an outbreak with the species and restriction enzyme used. In order to define this difference for epidemiological studies of Serratia marcescens, we produced DNA fingerprints from 57 ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268899004112

    authors: Aucken HM,Boquete T,Kaufmann ME,Pitt TL

    更新日期:2000-08-01 00:00:00

  • Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in psychiatric patients: a case-control study in eastern China.

    abstract::In recent years, the effect of Toxoplasma gondii infection on the cerebrum and neuropsychiatric patients has been increasingly highlighted. However, there is limited information about the epidemiology of T. gondii infection in psychiatric patients in Shandong province, eastern China. Therefore, through a case-control ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268814003835

    authors: Cong W,Dong W,Bai L,Wang XY,Ni XT,Qian AD,Zhu XQ

    更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00

  • The use of sorbitol-MacConkey agar in conjunction with a specific antiserum for the detection of Vero cytotoxin-producing strains of Escherichia coli O 157.

    abstract::Using DNA probes specific for the genes encoding Vero cytotoxins 1 and 2 in hybridization experiments on faecal samples, Vero cytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) of serogroup O 157 were detected in 21 of 63 cases of haemorrhagic colitis, 9 of 31 cases of non-bloody diarrhoea and 14 of 68 cases of haemolytic ur...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800054261

    authors: Kleanthous H,Fry NK,Smith HR,Gross RJ,Rowe B

    更新日期:1988-10-01 00:00:00

  • HBV and HCV infection among non-European Union immigrants in North-East Italy.

    abstract::The status of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among non-European Union (non-EU) immigrants in North-East Italy was evaluated. Among the 1683 individuals tested the prevalence of HBsAg was 8.9% (150 subjects) and of HBV antibodies (anti-HBc with/without anti-HBs) was 38.9% (654 subjects). ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268898001034

    authors: Chiaramonte M,Pupo A,Menegon T,Baldo V,Malatesta R,Trivello R

    更新日期:1998-08-01 00:00:00

  • Epidemic cholera among refugees in Malawi, Africa: treatment and transmission.

    abstract::Between 23 August and 15 December 1990 an epidemic of cholera affected Mozambican refugees in Malawi causing 1931 cases (attack rate = 2.4%); 86% of patients had arrived in Malawi < 3 months before illness onset. There were 68 deaths (case-fatality rate = 3.5%); most deaths (63%) occurred within 24 h of hospital admis...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268896007352

    authors: Swerdlow DL,Malenga G,Begkoyian G,Nyangulu D,Toole M,Waldman RJ,Puhr DN,Tauxe RV

    更新日期:1997-06-01 00:00:00

  • A community outbreak of Campylobacter jejuni infection from a chlorinated public water supply.

    abstract::An outbreak of Campylobacter jejuni infection occurred in a South Wales Valleys housing estate. Illness in estate residents was associated with tap water consumption [population attributable risk (PAR) 50%, relative risk (RR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-3.37] and residence in the upper estate (PAR 49%, RR 2...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268807007960

    authors: Richardson G,Thomas DR,Smith RM,Nehaul L,Ribeiro CD,Brown AG,Salmon RL

    更新日期:2007-10-01 00:00:00

  • Antigenic analysis of SAT 2 serotype foot-and-mouth disease virus isolates from Zimbabwe using monoclonal antibodies.

    abstract::This paper compares strains of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) serotype SAT (South African Territories) 2 viruses isolated from Zimbabwe and other African countries using monoclonal antibodies (MAb). A sandwich-ELISA was used to examine the relative binding of anti-SAT 2 MAb to the various viruses. The MAb-binding profil...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s095026880005826x

    authors: Davidson FL,Crowther JR,Nqindi J,Knowles NJ,Thevasagayam SJ,Van Vuuren CJ

    更新日期:1995-08-01 00:00:00

  • Post-pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm09 is associated with more severe outcomes than A/H3N2 and other respiratory viruses in adult hospitalisations.

    abstract::This study compares the frequency and severity of influenza A/H1N1pdm09 (A/H1), influenza A/H3N2 (A/H3) and other respiratory virus infections in hospitalised patients. Data from 17 332 adult hospitalised patients admitted to Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, with a respiratory illness between 2...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S095026881900195X

    authors: Minney-Smith CA,Selvey LA,Levy A,Smith DW

    更新日期:2019-11-28 00:00:00

  • The effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccines in a high risk population measured using immunization register data.

    abstract::The Northern Territory of Australia has had historically very high incidence rates of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children less than 5 years of age, with the burden of disease greatest among Aboriginal infants less than 12 months. This study documents the impact of conjugate Hib vaccines introduc...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268801005155

    authors: Markey P,Krause V,Boslego JW,Coplan PM,Dargan JM,Kaplan KM

    更新日期:2001-02-01 00:00:00

  • Molecular characterization of capsular polysaccharides and surface protein genes in relation to genetic similarity of group B streptococci isolated from Polish pregnant women.

    abstract::Serotyping, subtyping and genotyping are important tools for epidemiological studies of group B streptococci (GBS). We investigated the genotype distribution of 353 GBS isolates originating from vaginal or rectal carriage to identify capsular serotypes and subtypes based on the surface protein genes of the alpha-like ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268811000616

    authors: Brzychczy-Włoch M,Gosiewski T,Bodaszewska-Lubas M,Adamski P,Heczko PB

    更新日期:2012-02-01 00:00:00

  • The application of genotyping techniques to the epidemiological analysis of Campylobacter jejuni.

    abstract::Campylobacter jejuni serogroup reference strains and collections of sporadic and outbreak-associated isolates were examined for restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs), using C. jejuni random chromosomal and 16S rRNA gene probes. A collection of 48 Penner (HS) and 14 Lior (HL) serogroup reference strains, pl...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800001400

    authors: Jackson CJ,Fox AJ,Wareing DR,Hutchinson DN,Jones DM

    更新日期:1996-10-01 00:00:00

  • Test characteristics of the tuberculin skin test and post-mortem examination for bovine tuberculosis diagnosis in cattle in Northern Ireland estimated by Bayesian latent class analysis with adjustments for covariates.

    abstract::The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test and post-mortem examination are the main diagnostic tools for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle in the British Isles. Latent class modelling is often used to estimate the bTB test characteristics due to the absence of a gold standard. However, the r...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268819000888

    authors: O'Hagan MJH,Ni H,Menzies FD,Pascual-Linaza AV,Georgaki A,Stegeman JA

    更新日期:2019-01-01 00:00:00

  • Lessons from 40 years' surveillance of influenza in England and Wales.

    abstract::The influenza virus continues to pose a significant threat to public health throughout the world. Current avian influenza outbreaks in humans have heightened the need for improved surveillance and planning. Despite recent advances in the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs, seasonal epidemics of influenza cont...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/S0950268807009910

    authors: Fleming DM,Elliot AJ

    更新日期:2008-07-01 00:00:00

  • Healthcare utilization and lost productivity due to infectious gastroenteritis, results from a national cross-sectional survey Australia 2008-2009.

    abstract::The aim of this study was to estimate the healthcare usage and loss of productivity due to gastroenteritis in Australia using the National Gastroenteritis Survey II. In 2008-2009, 7578 participants across Australia were surveyed about infectious gastroenteritis by telephone interview. A gastroenteritis case was define...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268815001375

    authors: Chen Y,Ford L,Hall G,Dobbins T,Kirk M

    更新日期:2016-01-01 00:00:00

  • Q fever infection in dairy cattle herds: increased risk with high wind speed and low precipitation.

    abstract::Ruminants are considered the main reservoir for transmission of Coxiella burnetii (Cb) to humans. The implementation of effective control measures against Cb in ruminants requires knowledge about potential risk factors. The objectives of this study were (i) to describe the spatial distribution of Q fever-infected dair...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268814003926

    authors: Nusinovici S,Frössling J,Widgren S,Beaudeau F,Lindberg A

    更新日期:2015-11-01 00:00:00

  • The effect of infections on the mortality of cirrhotic patients with hepatic encephalopathy.

    abstract::Cirrhotic patients are prone to having infections, which may aggravate hepatic encephalopathy (HE). However, the effect of infections on mortality in HE cirrhotic patients is not well described. The National Health Insurance Database, derived from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Programme, was used to identify 41...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268813000186

    authors: Hung TH,Lay CJ,Chang CM,Tsai JJ,Tsai CC,Tsai CC

    更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00

  • Eradication of vancomycin resistant Enterococcus faecium from a paediatric oncology unit and prevalence of colonization in hospitalized and community-based children.

    abstract::We previously reported an outbreak of vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE) in a paediatric oncology unit in December 1995 which was associated with widespread environmental contamination of the unit with VRE. We undertook this study to evaluate the effectiveness of the infection control policy instituted subsequent ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s095026889900326x

    authors: Nourse C,Byrne C,Murphy H,Kaufmann ME,Clarke A,Butler K

    更新日期:2000-02-01 00:00:00

  • Measles, mumps, rubella and VZV: importance of serological testing of vaccine-preventable diseases in young adults living with HIV in Germany.

    abstract::Measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection can cause serious diseases and complications in the HIV-positive population. Due to successful vaccination programmes measles, mumps and congenital rubella syndrome has become neglected in Germany. However, recent outbreaks of measles have occurr...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究

    doi:10.1017/S095026881600217X

    authors: Schwarze-Zander C,Draenert R,Lehmann C,Stecher M,Boesecke C,Sammet S,Wasmuth JC,Seybold U,Gillor D,Wieland U,Kümmerle T,Strassburg CP,Mankertz A,Eis-Hübinger AM,Jäger G,Fätkenheuer G,Bogner JR,Rockstroh JK,Vehreschild

    更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00

  • Rabies virus strains circulating in Bhutan: implications for control.

    abstract::We report a molecular epidemiological study of rabies virus (RABV) strains circulating in animal populations in Bhutan, and investigate potential origins of these viruses. Twenty-three RABV isolates originating from dogs and other domestic animals were characterized by sequencing the partial nucleoprotein (N) gene (39...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810002682

    authors: Tenzin,Wacharapluesadee S,Denduangboripant J,Dhand NK,Dorji R,Tshering D,Rinzin K,Raika V,Dahal N,Ward MP

    更新日期:2011-10-01 00:00:00

  • Cowpox in a human, Russia, 2015.

    abstract::We investigated the first laboratory-confirmed human case of cowpox virus infection in Russia since 1991. Phylogenetic studies of haemagglutinin, TNF-α receptor-like protein and thymidine kinase regions showed significant differences with known orthopoxviruses, including unique amino-acid substitutions and deletions. ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816002922

    authors: Popova AY,Maksyutov RA,Taranov OS,Tregubchak TV,Zaikovskaya AV,Sergeev AA,Vlashchenko IV,Bodnev SA,Ternovoi VA,Alexandrova NS,Tarasov AL,Konovalova NV,Koroleva AA,Bulychev LE,Pyankov OV,Demina YV,Agafonov AP,Shchelkunov

    更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00

  • Attributing sporadic and outbreak-associated infections to sources: blending epidemiological data.

    abstract::Common sources of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 infection have been identified by investigating outbreaks and by case-control studies of sporadic infections. We conducted an analysis to attribute STEC O157 infections ascertained in 1996 and 1999 by the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Networ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268813000915

    authors: Cole D,Griffin PM,Fullerton KE,Ayers T,Smith K,Ingram LA,Kissler B,Hoekstra RM

    更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00

  • The prevalence of hepatitis B and C in an antenatal population of various ethnic origins.

    abstract::A total of 3522 samples of serum, collected anonymously from women attending an antenatal clinic, was tested for hepatitis B surface antigen and antibody to hepatitis C. The prevalence of anti-HCV was low; only five confirmed positives were found (0.14%). The prevalence of hepatitis B overall was 0.56%, but was 1.04% ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800068539

    authors: Boxall E,Skidmore S,Evans C,Nightingale S

    更新日期:1994-12-01 00:00:00