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Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community.

Abstract：

:Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log-linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below-average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above-average temperatures, the long-term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early-flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late-flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.

journal_name

Glob Chang Biol

journal_title

Global change biology

authors

Mulder CP,Iles DT,Rockwell RF

doi

10.1111/gcb.13386

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-02-01 00:00:00

pages

801-814

issue

eissn

1354-1013

issn

1365-2486

journal_volume

pub_type

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Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community.