The Research Optimist's Defense.

Abstract:

:Several studies suggest that clinical researchers are prone to overestimating the chance that scientific protocols will succeed, say, by confirming a treatment hypothesis or reaching recruitment targets. In this essay, we address the normative question of whether such "unrealistic optimism" is harmful in clinical research. We entertain five plausible defenses of unrealistic optimism: agnosticism (optimism cannot be objectively assessed), skepticism (expressions of unrealistic optimism are difficult to interpret, since researchers are not accustomed to thinking in terms of probability), contrarianism (unrealistic optimism is salutary), denialism (any effects of unrealistic optimism are neutralized by oversight mechanisms), and fatalism (nothing can be done to alter unrealistic optimism or its effects). Though each argument has force, we find each insufficient to dispel moral concerns about community-wide unrealistic optimism in research. We close by describing how each argument might inform the study and moral evaluation of unrealistic optimism in research.

journal_name

Perspect Biol Med

authors

Benjamin D,Kimmelman J

doi

10.1353/pbm.2016.0043

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-01-01 00:00:00

pages

491-506

issue

4

eissn

0031-5982

issn

1529-8795

pii

S1529879516400049

journal_volume

59

pub_type

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