Testing the accuracy ratio of the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) through Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreaks.

Abstract:

:Mathematical modelling is an important tool for understanding the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases, which could be the result of a natural outbreak or of the intentional release of pathogenic biological agents. Decision makers and policymakers responsible for strategies to contain disease, prevent epidemics and fight possible bioterrorism attacks, need accurate computational tools, based on mathematical modelling, for preventing or even managing these complex situations. In this article, we tested the validity, and demonstrate the reliability, of an open-source software, the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM), designed to help scientists and public health officials to evaluate and create models of emerging infectious diseases, analysing three real cases of Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreaks: Uganda (2000), Gabon (2001) and Guinea (2014). We discuss the cases analysed through the simulation results obtained with STEM in order to demonstrate the capability of this software in helping decision makers plan interventions in case of biological emergencies.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Baldassi F,D'Amico F,Carestia M,Cenciarelli O,Mancinelli S,Gilardi F,Malizia A,DI Giovanni D,Soave PM,Bellecci C,Gaudio P,Palombi L

doi

10.1017/S0950268815002939

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-05-01 00:00:00

pages

1463-72

issue

7

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268815002939

journal_volume

144

pub_type

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