Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions.

Abstract:

:We present a framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal co-occurrence of climate stresses in a nonstationary climate. We find that, globally, anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961-1990 baseline). In addition, the joint probability that key crop and pasture regions simultaneously experience severely warm conditions in conjunction with dry years has also increased, including high statistical confidence that human influence has increased the probability of previously unprecedented co-occurring combinations. Further, we find that ambitious emissions mitigation, such as that in the United Nations Paris Agreement, substantially curbs increases in the probability that extremely hot years co-occur with low precipitation simultaneously in multiple regions. Our methodology can be applied to other climate variables, providing critical insight for a number of sectors that are accustomed to deploying resources based on historical probabilities.

journal_name

Sci Adv

journal_title

Science advances

authors

Sarhadi A,Ausín MC,Wiper MP,Touma D,Diffenbaugh NS

doi

10.1126/sciadv.aau3487

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-11-28 00:00:00

pages

eaau3487

issue

11

issn

2375-2548

pii

aau3487

journal_volume

4

pub_type

杂志文章
  • A Candida albicans CRISPR system permits genetic engineering of essential genes and gene families.

    abstract::Candida albicans is a pathogenic yeast that causes mucosal and systematic infections with high mortality. The absence of facile molecular genetics has been a major impediment to analysis of pathogenesis. The lack of meiosis coupled with the absence of plasmids makes genetic engineering cumbersome, especially for essen...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500248

    authors: Vyas VK,Barrasa MI,Fink GR

    更新日期:2015-01-01 00:00:00

  • Dipole-like electrostatic asymmetry of gold nanorods.

    abstract::The symmetry of metallic nanocolloids, typically envisaged as simple geometrical shapes, is rarely questioned. However, the symmetry considerations are so essential for understanding their electronic structure, optical properties, and biological effects that it is important to reexamine these foundational assumptions ...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1700682

    authors: Kim JY,Han MG,Lien MB,Magonov S,Zhu Y,George H,Norris TB,Kotov NA

    更新日期:2018-02-09 00:00:00

  • cAMP metabolism controls caspase-11 inflammasome activation and pyroptosis in sepsis.

    abstract::The ability of cytosolic lipopolysaccharide (LPS) to activate caspase-11-dependent nonclassical inflammasome is intricately controlled to avoid excessive inflammatory responses. However, very little is known about the regulatory role of various metabolic pathways in the control of caspase-11 activation. Here, we demon...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav5562

    authors: Chen R,Zeng L,Zhu S,Liu J,Zeh HJ,Kroemer G,Wang H,Billiar TR,Jiang J,Tang D,Kang R

    更新日期:2019-05-22 00:00:00

  • Prevention of pesticide-induced neuronal dysfunction and mortality with nucleophilic poly-Oxime topical gel.

    abstract::Organophosphate-based pesticides inhibit acetylcholinesterase (AChE), which plays a pivotal role in neuromuscular function. While spraying in the field, farmworkers get exposed to pesticides through the dermal route. Internalized pesticide inhibits AChE, which leads to neurotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, cognitive dysfunct...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau1780

    authors: Thorat K,Pandey S,Chandrashekharappa S,Vavilthota N,Hiwale AA,Shah P,Sreekumar S,Upadhyay S,Phuntsok T,Mahato M,Mudnakudu-Nagaraju KK,Sunnapu O,Vemula PK

    更新日期:2018-10-17 00:00:00

  • A highly potent lymphatic system-targeting nanoparticle cyclosporine prevents glomerulonephritis in mouse model of lupus.

    abstract::Cyclosporine A (CsA) is a powerful immunosuppressant, but it is an ineffective stand-alone treatment for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) due to poor target tissue distribution and renal toxicity. We hypothesized that CD71 (transferrin receptor 1)-directed delivery of CsA to the lymphatic system would improve SLE ou...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.abb3900

    authors: Ganugula R,Arora M,Zou D,Agarwal SK,Mohan C,Kumar MNVR

    更新日期:2020-06-12 00:00:00

  • Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop.

    abstract::Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validate...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap7528

    authors: Galis M,Ampuero JP,Mai PM,Cappa F

    更新日期:2017-12-20 00:00:00

  • Stress drops of induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States are indistinguishable.

    abstract::Induced earthquakes currently pose a significant hazard in the central United States, but there is considerable uncertainty about the severity of their ground motions. We measure stress drops of 39 moderate-magnitude induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States and eastern North America. Induced earth...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1700772

    authors: Huang Y,Ellsworth WL,Beroza GC

    更新日期:2017-08-02 00:00:00

  • Attenuated diphtheria toxin mediates siRNA delivery.

    abstract::Toxins efficiently deliver cargo to cells by binding to cell surface ligands, initiating endocytosis, and escaping the endolysosomal pathway into the cytoplasm. We took advantage of this delivery pathway by conjugating an attenuated diphtheria toxin to siRNA, thereby achieving gene downregulation in patient-derived gl...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz4848

    authors: Arnold AE,Smith LJ,Beilhartz GL,Bahlmann LC,Jameson E,Melnyk RA,Shoichet MS

    更新日期:2020-05-01 00:00:00

  • Large losses of ammonium-nitrogen from a rice ecosystem under elevated CO2.

    abstract::Inputs of nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems, mainly via the use of ammonium-based fertilizers in agroecosystems, are enormous, but the fate of this nitrogen under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is not well understood. We have taken advantage of a 15-year free-air CO2 enrichment study to investigate the i...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.abb7433

    authors: Xu C,Zhang K,Zhu W,Xiao J,Zhu C,Zhang N,Yu F,Li S,Zhu C,Tu Q,Chen X,Zhu J,Hu S,Koide RT,Firestone MK,Cheng L

    更新日期:2020-10-16 00:00:00

  • Near-infrared and visible light dual-mode organic photodetectors.

    abstract::We report a dual-mode organic photodetector (OPD) that has a trilayer visible light absorber/optical spacer/near-infrared (NIR) light absorber configuration. In the presence of NIR light, photocurrent is produced in the NIR light-absorbing layer due to the trap-assisted charge injection at the organic/cathode interfac...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw8065

    authors: Lan Z,Lei Y,Chan WKE,Chen S,Luo D,Zhu F

    更新日期:2020-01-31 00:00:00

  • High-capacity poly(2-oxazoline) formulation of TLR 7/8 agonist extends survival in a chemo-insensitive, metastatic model of lung adenocarcinoma.

    abstract::About 40% of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have stage IV cancer at the time of diagnosis. The only viable treatment options for metastatic disease are systemic chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Nonetheless, chemoresistance remains a major cause of chemotherapy failure. New immunotherapeutic modalities...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba5542

    authors: Vinod N,Hwang D,Azam SH,Van Swearingen AED,Wayne E,Fussell SC,Sokolsky-Papkov M,Pecot CV,Kabanov AV

    更新日期:2020-06-17 00:00:00

  • Highly stable hybrid perovskite light-emitting diodes based on Dion-Jacobson structure.

    abstract::Organic-inorganic hybrid halide perovskites are emerging as promising materials for next-generation light-emitting diodes (LEDs). However, the poor stability of these materials has been the main obstacle challenging their application. Here, we performed first-principles calculations, revealing that the molecule dissoc...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw8072

    authors: Shang Y,Liao Y,Wei Q,Wang Z,Xiang B,Ke Y,Liu W,Ning Z

    更新日期:2019-08-16 00:00:00

  • Ultrahigh areal number density solid-state on-chip microsupercapacitors via electrohydrodynamic jet printing.

    abstract::Microsupercapacitors (MSCs) have garnered considerable attention as a promising power source for microelectronics and miniaturized portable/wearable devices. However, their practical application has been hindered by the manufacturing complexity and dimensional limits. Here, we develop a new class of ultrahigh areal nu...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz1692

    authors: Lee KH,Lee SS,Ahn DB,Lee J,Byun D,Lee SY

    更新日期:2020-03-06 00:00:00

  • Saturation of recognition elements blocks evolution of new tRNA identities.

    abstract::Understanding the principles that led to the current complexity of the genetic code is a central question in evolution. Expansion of the genetic code required the selection of new transfer RNAs (tRNAs) with specific recognition signals that allowed them to be matured, modified, aminoacylated, and processed by the ribo...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1501860

    authors: Saint-Léger A,Bello C,Dans PD,Torres AG,Novoa EM,Camacho N,Orozco M,Kondrashov FA,Ribas de Pouplana L

    更新日期:2016-04-29 00:00:00

  • Ferroelectric self-assembled molecular materials showing both rectifying and switchable conductivity.

    abstract::Advanced molecular materials that combine two or more physical properties are typically constructed by combining different molecules, each being responsible for one of the properties required. Ideally, single molecules could take care of this combined functionality, provided they are self-assembled correctly and endow...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1701017

    authors: Gorbunov AV,Garcia Iglesias M,Guilleme J,Cornelissen TD,Roelofs WSC,Torres T,González-Rodríguez D,Meijer EW,Kemerink M

    更新日期:2017-09-29 00:00:00

  • Direct targeting of oncogenic RAS mutants with a tumor-specific cytosol-penetrating antibody inhibits RAS mutant-driven tumor growth.

    abstract::Oncogenic RAS mutant (RASMUT) proteins have been considered undruggable via conventional antibody regimens owing to the intracellular location restricting conventional-antibody accessibility. Here, we report a pan-RAS-targeting IgG antibody, inRas37, which directly targets the intracellularly activated form of various...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay2174

    authors: Shin SM,Kim JS,Park SW,Jun SY,Kweon HJ,Choi DK,Lee D,Cho YB,Kim YS

    更新日期:2020-01-15 00:00:00

  • Off-axis magmatism along a subaerial back-arc rift: Observations from the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand.

    abstract::Continental rifting and seafloor spreading play a fundamental role in the generation of new crust. However, the distribution of magma and its relationship with tectonics and volcanism remain poorly understood, particularly in back-arc settings. We show evidence for a large, long-lived, off-axis magmatic intrusion loca...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1600288

    authors: Hamling IJ,Hreinsdóttir S,Bannister S,Palmer N

    更新日期:2016-06-03 00:00:00

  • Early formation of planetary building blocks inferred from Pb isotopic ages of chondrules.

    abstract::The most abundant components of primitive meteorites (chondrites) are millimeter-sized glassy spherical chondrules formed by transient melting events in the solar protoplanetary disk. Using Pb-Pb dates of 22 individual chondrules, we show that primary production of chondrules in the early solar system was restricted t...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1700407

    authors: Bollard J,Connelly JN,Whitehouse MJ,Pringle EA,Bonal L,Jørgensen JK,Nordlund Å,Moynier F,Bizzarro M

    更新日期:2017-08-09 00:00:00

  • DNA-dependent protein kinase promotes DNA end processing by MRN and CtIP.

    abstract::The repair of DNA double-strand breaks occurs through nonhomologous end joining or homologous recombination in vertebrate cells-a choice that is thought to be decided by a competition between DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNA-PK) and the Mre11/Rad50/Nbs1 (MRN) complex but is not well understood. Using ensemble biochem...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay0922

    authors: Deshpande RA,Myler LR,Soniat MM,Makharashvili N,Lee L,Lees-Miller SP,Finkelstein IJ,Paull TT

    更新日期:2020-01-08 00:00:00

  • Impact of complex topology of porous media on phase separation of binary mixtures.

    abstract::Porous materials, which are characterized by the large surface area and percolated nature crucial for transport, play an important role in many technological applications including battery, ion exchange, catalysis, microelectronics, medical diagnosis, and oil recovery. Phase separation of a mixture in such a porous st...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9570

    authors: Shimizu R,Tanaka H

    更新日期:2017-12-22 00:00:00

  • Charge-switchable polymeric complex for glucose-responsive insulin delivery in mice and pigs.

    abstract::Glucose-responsive insulin delivery systems with robust responsiveness that has been validated in animal models, especially in large animal models, remain elusive. Here, we exploit a new strategy to form a micro-sized complex between a charge-switchable polymer with a glucose-sensing moiety and insulin driven by elect...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw4357

    authors: Wang J,Yu J,Zhang Y,Zhang X,Kahkoska AR,Chen G,Wang Z,Sun W,Cai L,Chen Z,Qian C,Shen Q,Khademhosseini A,Buse JB,Gu Z

    更新日期:2019-07-10 00:00:00

  • Structural basis for KCNE3 modulation of potassium recycling in epithelia.

    abstract::The single-span membrane protein KCNE3 modulates a variety of voltage-gated ion channels in diverse biological contexts. In epithelial cells, KCNE3 regulates the function of the KCNQ1 potassium ion (K(+)) channel to enable K(+) recycling coupled to transepithelial chloride ion (Cl(-)) secretion, a physiologically crit...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1501228

    authors: Kroncke BM,Van Horn WD,Smith J,Kang C,Welch RC,Song Y,Nannemann DP,Taylor KC,Sisco NJ,George AL Jr,Meiler J,Vanoye CG,Sanders CR

    更新日期:2016-09-09 00:00:00

  • Integrated textile sensor patch for real-time and multiplex sweat analysis.

    abstract::Wearable sweat analysis devices for monitoring of multiple health-related biomarkers with high sensitivity are highly desired for noninvasive and real-time monitoring of human health. Here, we report a flexible sweat analysis patch based on a silk fabric-derived carbon textile for simultaneous detection of six health-...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax0649

    authors: He W,Wang C,Wang H,Jian M,Lu W,Liang X,Zhang X,Yang F,Zhang Y

    更新日期:2019-11-08 00:00:00

  • Tuning bad metal and non-Fermi liquid behavior in a Mott material: Rare-earth nickelate thin films.

    abstract::Resistances that exceed the Mott-Ioffe-Regel limit (known as bad metal behavior) and non-Fermi liquid behavior are ubiquitous features of the normal state of many strongly correlated materials. We establish the conditions that lead to bad metal and non-Fermi liquid phases in NdNiO3, which exhibits a prototype bandwidt...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500797

    authors: Mikheev E,Hauser AJ,Himmetoglu B,Moreno NE,Janotti A,Van de Walle CG,Stemmer S

    更新日期:2015-11-06 00:00:00

  • Direct imaging of ultrafast lattice dynamics.

    abstract::Under rapid high-temperature, high-pressure loading, lattices exhibit complex elastic-inelastic responses. The dynamics of these responses are challenging to measure experimentally because of high sample density and extremely small relevant spatial and temporal scales. Here, we use an x-ray free-electron laser providi...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau8044

    authors: Brown SB,Gleason AE,Galtier E,Higginbotham A,Arnold B,Fry A,Granados E,Hashim A,Schroer CG,Schropp A,Seiboth F,Tavella F,Xing Z,Mao W,Lee HJ,Nagler B

    更新日期:2019-03-08 00:00:00

  • A previously unrecognized source of the O2 Atmospheric band emission in Earth's nightglow.

    abstract::Earth's night sky continuously produces a faint chemiluminescence known as nightglow. Two prominent nighttime emissions around 90 km are the O2 Atmospheric and the OH Meinel band systems. Despite a plethora of studies since their identification seven decades ago, substantial gaps persist in our understanding of the me...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau9255

    authors: Kalogerakis KS

    更新日期:2019-03-20 00:00:00

  • Deep-reaching acceleration of global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades.

    abstract::Ocean circulation redistributes Earth's energy and water masses and influences global climate. Under historical greenhouse warming, regional ocean currents show diverse tendencies, but whether there is an emerging trend of the global mean ocean circulation system is not yet clear. Here, we show a statistically signifi...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax7727

    authors: Hu S,Sprintall J,Guan C,McPhaden MJ,Wang F,Hu D,Cai W

    更新日期:2020-02-05 00:00:00

  • pH-dependent gating mechanism of the Helicobacter pylori urea channel revealed by cryo-EM.

    abstract::The urea channel of Helicobacterpylori (HpUreI) is an ideal drug target for preventing gastric cancer but incomplete understanding of its gating mechanism has hampered development of inhibitors for the eradication of H. pylori. Here, we present the cryo-EM structures of HpUreI in closed and open conformations, both at...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav8423

    authors: Cui Y,Zhou K,Strugatsky D,Wen Y,Sachs G,Zhou ZH,Munson K

    更新日期:2019-03-20 00:00:00

  • Charge localization and reentrant superconductivity in a quasi-ballistic InAs nanowire coupled to superconductors.

    abstract::A semiconductor nanowire with strong spin-orbit coupling in proximity to a superconductor is predicted to display Majorana edge states emerging under a properly oriented magnetic field. The experimental investigation of these exotic states requires assessing the one-dimensional (1D) character of the nanowire and under...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav1235

    authors: Estrada Saldaña JC,Žitko R,Cleuziou JP,Lee EJH,Zannier V,Ercolani D,Sorba L,Aguado R,De Franceschi S

    更新日期:2019-07-05 00:00:00

  • Black phosphorus quantum dots in inorganic perovskite thin films for efficient photovoltaic application.

    abstract::Black phosphorus quantum dots (BPQDs) are proposed as effective seed-like sites to modulate the nucleation and growth of CsPbI2Br perovskite crystalline thin layers, allowing an enhanced crystallization and remarkable morphological improvement. We reveal that the lone-pair electrons of BPQDs can induce strong binding ...

    journal_title:Science advances

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay5661

    authors: Gong X,Guan L,Li Q,Li Y,Zhang T,Pan H,Sun Q,Shen Y,Grätzel C,Zakeeruddin SM,Grätzel M,Wang M

    更新日期:2020-04-10 00:00:00