Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Aedes aegypti rapid larval surveys are mandatory in Brazil. Here, we retrospectively examined whether the house index estimated by larval surveys served as a useful tool in anticipating epidemics within Brazilian municipalities from 2009-2015. METHODS:We used correlation indices and classification analysis stratified by year, region, population size and time after the national larval survey. RESULTS:We found no association between the house index and the proportion of municipalities experiencing an epidemic. The sensitivity of a high score house index in predicting an epidemic was 7.20% (95% CI 6.22 to 8.33%) for all years combined. The positive predictive value of a high score house index to predict a 'true epidemic' was 38.96%, lower than the negative predictive values of a low score house index for predicting 'no epidemic' (56.96%). The highest overall sensitivity was observed in the North region (20.15%; 95% CI 17.14 to 23.53%). The sensitivity of a high score house index demonstrated a monotonic decrease with increasing time from larval collection. CONCLUSIONS:Larval surveys are surveillance tools with the potential to risk-stratify and guide dengue control programs towards judicious resource allocation. However, the national rapid larval survey performed in Brazil, in its present form, consistently underpredicts dengue epidemics.
journal_name
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hygauthors
Enslen AW,Lima Neto AS,Castro MCdoi
10.1093/trstmh/traa021subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-07-01 00:00:00pages
506-512issue
7eissn
0035-9203issn
1878-3503pii
5826585journal_volume
114pub_type
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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更新日期:1995-01-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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