Clinical and inflammatory features based machine learning model for fatal risk prediction of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a retrospective cohort study.


OBJECTIVES:To appraise effective predictors for COVID-19 mortality in a retrospective cohort study. METHODS:A total of 1270 COVID-19 patients, including 984 admitted in Sino French New City Branch (training and internal validation sets randomly split at 7:3 ratio) and 286 admitted in Optical Valley Branch (external validation set) of Wuhan Tongji hospital, were included in this study. Forty-eight clinical and laboratory features were screened with LASSO method. Further multi-tree extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning-based model was used to rank importance of features selected from LASSO and subsequently constructed death risk prediction model with simple-tree XGBoost model. Performances of models were evaluated by AUC, prediction accuracy, precision, and F1 scores. RESULTS:Six features, including disease severity, age, levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), ferritin, and interleukin-10 (IL-10), were selected as predictors for COVID-19 mortality. Simple-tree XGBoost model conducted by these features can predict death risk accurately with >90% precision and >85% sensitivity, as well as F1 scores >0.90 in training and validation sets. CONCLUSION:We proposed the disease severity, age, serum levels of hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 as significant predictors for death risk of COVID-19, which may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases. KEY MESSAGES A machine learning method is used to build death risk model for COVID-19 patients. Disease severity, age, hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 are death risk factors. These findings may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases.


Ann Med


Annals of medicine


Guan X,Zhang B,Fu M,Li M,Yuan X,Zhu Y,Peng J,Guo H,Lu Y




Has Abstract


2021-12-01 00:00:00












  • Distribution of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist genotypes in sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI); unexplained SUDI have a higher frequency of allele 2.

    abstract:AIMS:This investigation was designed to explore the role of IL-1RN genotype in unexplained infant deaths (including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)), non-infectious infant deaths, and infectious infant deaths, and to investigate whether IL-1RN genotype is related to the finding of organisms in normally sterile site...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Highet AR,Berry AM,Goldwater PN

    更新日期:2010-01-01 00:00:00

  • Genetics of type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity--a review.

    abstract::Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity are recognized as conditions of growing biomedical importance to societies worldwide. Despite this, lack of understanding concerning the processes which normally serve to maintain weight and to regulate glucose concentrations, and ignorance about the mechanisms by which these homeosta...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Jafar-Mohammadi B,McCarthy MI

    更新日期:2008-01-01 00:00:00

  • Assessment of endothelial (dys)function in atrial fibrillation.

    abstract::Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity from stroke and thromboembolism. Endothelial damage or dysfunction may contribute to this increased risk of thromboembolism via the mediation of a prothrombotic or hypercoagulable state. However, the precise pathophysiological mec...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Krishnamoorthy S,Lim SH,Lip GY

    更新日期:2009-01-01 00:00:00

  • Nationwide survey to compare the prevalence of transient elevation of liver transaminase during treatment of diabetic ketosis or ketoacidosis in new-onset acute and fulminant type 1 diabetes mellitus.

    abstract:BACKGROUND AIMS:A mild increase in liver enzyme levels is sometimes observed in patients with diabetic ketosis or ketoacidosis. The aim of the present study was to assess the cause and prevalence of the elevation of liver transaminase levels in fulminant and acute-onset type 1 diabetic patients experiencing diabetic ke...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Takaike H,Uchigata Y,Iwamoto Y,Imagawa A,Iwahashi H,Kanatsuka A,Kawasaki E,Kobayashi T,Shimada A,Shimizu I,Maruyama T,Hanafusa T,Makino H

    更新日期:2008-01-01 00:00:00

  • Sex, age, and time to cardioversion. Risk factors for cardioversion of acute atrial fibrillation from the FinCV study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Female sex, old age, and time to cardioversion increase the risk of thromboembolic complications (TEC) after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation (AF) < 48 h. The interaction of these variables is not known. We investigated the interaction of sex, age, and time to electrical cardioversion (ECV) on TEC in ant...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Bah A,Nuotio I,Grönberg T,Ylitalo A,Airaksinen KE,Hartikainen JE

    更新日期:2017-05-01 00:00:00

  • Chemokines and atherosclerosis.

    abstract::Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease of the vessel wall, characterized by the accumulation of leukocytes, especially macrophages and T-cells. Chemokines are small heparin-binding polypeptides, whose main function is to attract cells to the areas of developing inflammation. They function by ligating G-protein cou...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Sheikine Y,Hansson GK

    更新日期:2004-01-01 00:00:00

  • Association between low-grade albuminuria and hearing impairment in a non-diabetic Korean population: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2011-2013).

    abstract:INTRODUCTION:The objective of the present study was to examine the association between low-grade albuminuria and hearing impairment in the non-diabetic population. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2013 were used in the analyses. Participants were excluded...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Kang SH,Jung DJ,Choi EW,Park JW,Cho KH,Yoon KW,Do JY

    更新日期:2015-01-01 00:00:00

  • Exercise echocardiography in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

    abstract::The purpose of this study was to test the applicability of exercise echocardiography in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease. The results were compared to findings of coronary angiography. 118 patients, 100 males and 18 females, who were all referred to coronary angiography for suspected ischaemic heart disease, u...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验


    authors: Luotolahti M,Saraste M,Hartiala J

    更新日期:1996-02-01 00:00:00

  • Euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide.

    abstract::In the Netherlands there are about 9700 explicit requests for euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide (EAS) each year, of which approximately 3600 are granted. Other countries have criticized the Dutch policy concerning EAS. It has been suggested that palliative care in the Netherlands is not adequate and that euthan...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Swarte NB,Heintz AP

    更新日期:1999-12-01 00:00:00

  • The effects of canrenone on inflammatory markers in patients with metabolic syndrome.

    abstract:AIM:To evaluate the effects of canrenone compared to placebo on blood pressure control, some non-conventional biomarkers in cardiovascular stratification, and on metalloproteinases in patients affected by metabolic syndrome. METHODS:A total of 156 Caucasian patients were treated with placebo or canrenone, 50 mg once a...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验


    authors: Derosa G,Romano D,Bianchi L,D'Angelo A,Maffioli P

    更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00

  • Three circadian clock genes Per2, Arntl, and Npas2 contribute to winter depression.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Multiple lines of evidence suggest that the circadian clock contributes to the pathogenesis of winter depression or seasonal affective disorder (SAD). We hypothesized that sequence variations in three genes, including Per2, Arntl, and Npas2, which form a functional unit at the core of the circadian clock, pr...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Partonen T,Treutlein J,Alpman A,Frank J,Johansson C,Depner M,Aron L,Rietschel M,Wellek S,Soronen P,Paunio T,Koch A,Chen P,Lathrop M,Adolfsson R,Persson ML,Kasper S,Schalling M,Peltonen L,Schumann G

    更新日期:2007-01-01 00:00:00

  • Population strategies of cardiovascular disease prevention: scientific base, rationale and public health implications.

    abstract::Congruence of evidence from all medical research methodologies has established the major causal influences in cardiovascular disease. Causation thus established, epidemiological observations are the best available evidence on which to base estimates of the potential of preventive strategies. From population comparison...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,评审


    authors: Blackburn H

    更新日期:1989-06-01 00:00:00

  • Changes of myocardial functions in acute hepatic porphyrias. Role of heme arginate administration.

    abstract::In three patients with attacks of acute intermittent porphyria we found markedly impaired functions of the left ventricle accompanied by ECG changes that returned to normal after administration of heme arginate or cytochrome C administration. In nine patients with other types of porphyria, and in one patient with acut...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Kordac V,Kozáková M,Martásek P

    更新日期:1989-08-01 00:00:00

  • Autoinflammatory diseases and cardiovascular manifestations.

    abstract::Abstract A host of clinical scenarios can be depicted in hereditary autoinflammatory diseases, and the cardiovascular system can also be involved especially in familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), caused by mutations in the MEFV gene, and tumour necrosis factor receptor-associated periodic syndrome (TRAPS), caused by m...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Rigante D,Cantarini L,Imazio M,Lucherini OM,Sacco E,Galeazzi M,Brizi MG,Brucato A

    更新日期:2011-08-01 00:00:00

  • Triglyceride glucose and haemoglobin glycation index for predicting outcomes in diabetes patients with new-onset, stable coronary artery disease: a nested case-control study.

    abstract:AIM:Previous studies have shown that both triglyceride glucose (TyG) and haemoglobin glycation indexes (HGI) are predictors of cardiovascular risk. However, the prognostic value of TyG index and HGI in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and stable coronary artery disease (CAD) is not determined. METHODS:We ...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Jin JL,Sun D,Cao YX,Guo YL,Wu NQ,Zhu CG,Gao Y,Dong QT,Zhang HW,Liu G,Dong Q,Li JJ

    更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00

  • Atherosclerosis and innate immune signaling.

    abstract::Atherosclerosis, the leading cause of death in developed countries, is characterized by chronic inflammation in the artery wall. It has been appreciated for decades that this disease is linked to hypercholesterolemia and the accumulation of macrophages in the artery wall, yet the exact mechanisms underlying this infla...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Laberge MA,Moore KJ,Freeman MW

    更新日期:2005-01-01 00:00:00

  • Chronic helminth infections modulate allergen-specific immune responses: Protection against development of allergic disorders?

    abstract::Inflammatory diseases are on the rise in westernized countries, but also in urbanized areas of developing countries. A number of studies have now demonstrated a negative association between helminth infections and inflammatory diseases, such as allergy, suggesting a potential role for helminth-induced immune responses...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Smits HH,Yazdanbakhsh M

    更新日期:2007-01-01 00:00:00

  • Age-dependent interaction of apolipoprotein E gene with eastern birthplace in Finland affects severity of coronary atherosclerosis and risk of fatal myocardial infarction--Helsinki Sudden Death Study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) has been constantly higher in eastern late settlement regions compared to western early settlements in Finland, unrelated to classical risk factors. In line with this, eastern birthplace was an age-dependent predictor of severe coronary atherosclerosis and pre-hosp...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Tyynelä P,Goebeler S,Ilveskoski E,Mikkelsson J,Perola M,Lehtimäki T,Karhunen PJ

    更新日期:2013-05-01 00:00:00

  • Estimation of VLDL, IDL, LDL, HDL2, apoA-I, and apoB from the Friedewald inputs--apoB and IDL, but not LDL, are associated with mortality in type 1 diabetes.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:There is an unmet need for a straightforward and cost-effective assessment of multiple lipoprotein risk factors for vascular diseases. AIMS:1) To study the relation of various lipoprotein lipid and apolipoprotein (apo) measures on the Friedewald inputs, i.e. plasma triglycerides (TG), cholesterol (TC), and ...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Niemi J,Mäkinen VP,Heikkonen J,Tenkanen L,Hiltunen Y,Hannuksela ML,Jauhiainen M,Forsblom C,Taskinen MR,Kesäniemi YA,Savolainen MJ,Kaski K,Groop PH,Kovanen PT,Ala-Korpela M

    更新日期:2009-01-01 00:00:00

  • Depression, antidepressant use, and risk of venous thromboembolism: systematic review and meta-analysis of published observational evidence.

    abstract:PURPOSE:Evidence on the association between depression, antidepressant use and venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk is conflicting. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published observational studies evaluating the associations of depression and antidepressant use with VTE risk. DESIGN:Eligible studies ...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析


    authors: Kunutsor SK,Seidu S,Khunti K

    更新日期:2018-09-01 00:00:00

  • Maternal and fetal erythropoietin: physiological aspects and clinical significance.

    abstract::Erythropoietin (EPO) is of special interest in the perinatal period in the mother and fetus. On the one hand, thanks to the recent development of highly sensitive radio-immunoassays and the ability to monitor endogenous EPO production, we can now study the physiological aspects of maternal and fetal erythropoiesis and...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Huch R,Huch A

    更新日期:1993-06-01 00:00:00

  • Optimization of insulin treatment in children.

    abstract::Diabetes in childhood and adolescence is a difficult, lifelong, evolving disorder. Insulin treatment is essential for the establishment and maintenance of optimal metabolic control but it is only part of a comprehensive child-focused management strategy which must be initiated at the time of diagnosis. Attention must ...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Swift PG

    更新日期:1997-10-01 00:00:00

  • Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation: an update for clinicians.

    abstract::High-dose chemotherapy followed by transplantation of autologous hematopoietic progenitor cells has a proven track record of safety and efficacy in hematological malignancies and select solid tumors. The near-universal use of peripheral blood stem cells as source for autografts, routine growth factor support, and anti...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Hamadani M

    更新日期:2014-12-01 00:00:00

  • Human prion diseases.

    abstract::The term 'prion diseases' refers to a group of neurodegenerative disorders thought to be caused by prions, pathogenic agents with novel modes of replication and transmission. Prion diseases are characterized by long incubation periods ranging from months to years and are invariably fatal once clinical symptoms have ap...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Haltia M

    更新日期:2000-10-01 00:00:00

  • Small cell carcinoma of the prostate presenting with Cushing Syndrome. A narrative review of an uncommon condition.

    abstract::Small cell carcinoma (SCC) of the prostate is an uncommon condition; there are very few cases in which presenting symptoms are consistent with Cushing Syndrome (CS). We report a new case in which CS triggers the suspicion of an SCC of the prostate and a review of the published cases of SCC of the prostate presenting w...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Rueda-Camino JA,Losada-Vila B,De Ancos-Aracil CL,Rodríguez-Lajusticia L,Tardío JC,Zapatero-Gaviria A

    更新日期:2016-01-01 00:00:00

  • Uncovering the pathogenesis of large granular lymphocytic leukemia-novel STAT3 and STAT5b mutations.

    abstract::Large granular lymphocytic (LGL) leukemia is an incurable chronic disease, characterized by clonal expansion of cytotoxic T- or NK-cells in blood and bone marrow. Cytopenias (anemia, neutropenia) and autoimmune disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis are the most common clinical manifestations of LGL leukemia. Recently...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Rajala HL,Porkka K,Maciejewski JP,Loughran TP Jr,Mustjoki S

    更新日期:2014-05-01 00:00:00

  • Pathogenesis of ligaments ossification in spondyloarthritis: insights and doubts.

    abstract::Despite intensive research in spondyloarthritis pathogenesis, some important questions still remain unanswered, particularly concerning enthesis new bone formation. Several evidences suggest that it prevalently occurs by endochondral ossification, however it remains to identify factors that can induce and influence it...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Neve A,Maruotti N,Corrado A,Cantatore FP

    更新日期:2017-05-01 00:00:00

  • Associations between sleep disturbances and diabetes mellitus among blacks with metabolic syndrome: Results from the Metabolic Syndrome Outcome Study (MetSO).

    abstract:INTRODUCTION:The association between sleep disturbances and cardiometabolic diseases has been understudied in blacks with metabolic syndrome. METHODS:This study is a cross-sectional analysis of the Metabolic Syndrome Outcome Study (MetSO) trial. We assessed insomnia symptoms, sleep duration, and risk for sleep apnea. ...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Ramos AR,Wallace DM,Pandi-Perumal SR,Williams NJ,Castor C,Sevick MA,Mcfarlane SI,Jean-Louis G

    更新日期:2015-05-01 00:00:00

  • Chemical and physical properties of regenerative medicine materials controlling stem cell fate.

    abstract::Regenerative medicine is a multidisciplinary field utilizing the potential of stem cells and the regenerative capability of the body to restore, maintain, or enhance tissue and organ functions. Stem cells are unspecialized cells that can self-renew but also differentiate into several somatic cells when subjected the a...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Kaivosoja E,Barreto G,Levón K,Virtanen S,Ainola M,Konttinen YT

    更新日期:2012-11-01 00:00:00

  • Detection of Helicobacter pylori infection: when to perform which test?

    abstract::This paper reviews current diagnostic techniques for Helicobacter pylori infection and critically questions their value under different diagnostic circumstances. As long as we do not have general treatment recommendations for H. pylori infection, endoscopy is still the basis for primary diagnosis because it assesses t...

    journal_title:Annals of medicine

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审


    authors: Braden B,Caspary WF

    更新日期:2001-03-01 00:00:00