Penalized count data regression with application to hospital stay after pediatric cardiac surgery.

Abstract:

:Pediatric cardiac surgery may lead to poor outcomes such as acute kidney injury (AKI) and prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS). Plasma and urine biomarkers may help with early identification and prediction of these adverse clinical outcomes. In a recent multi-center study, 311 children undergoing cardiac surgery were enrolled to evaluate multiple biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of AKI and other clinical outcomes. LOS is often analyzed as count data, thus Poisson regression and negative binomial (NB) regression are common choices for developing predictive models. With many correlated prognostic factors and biomarkers, variable selection is an important step. The present paper proposes new variable selection methods for Poisson and NB regression. We evaluated regularized regression through penalized likelihood function. We first extend the elastic net (Enet) Poisson to two penalized Poisson regression: Mnet, a combination of minimax concave and ridge penalties; and Snet, a combination of smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and ridge penalties. Furthermore, we extend the above methods to the penalized NB regression. For the Enet, Mnet, and Snet penalties (EMSnet), we develop a unified algorithm to estimate the parameters and conduct variable selection simultaneously. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods have advantages with highly correlated predictors, against some of the competing methods. Applying the proposed methods to the aforementioned data, it is discovered that early postoperative urine biomarkers including NGAL, IL18, and KIM-1 independently predict LOS, after adjusting for risk and biomarker variables.

journal_name

Stat Methods Med Res

authors

Wang Z,Ma S,Zappitelli M,Parikh C,Wang CY,Devarajan P

doi

10.1177/0962280214530608

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-12-01 00:00:00

pages

2685-2703

issue

6

eissn

0962-2802

issn

1477-0334

pii

0962280214530608

journal_volume

25

pub_type

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