Difficulties in predicting outcome in cardiac surgery patients.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVE:To evaluate a novel combination of preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables (including the Parsonnet, and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and III [APACHE II and III] scores) in cardiac surgery patients in order to predict hospital outcome, complications, and length of stay. DESIGN:Prospective survey. SETTING:Adult intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary care cardiothoracic surgery center. PATIENTS:All cardiac surgery patients admitted to the ICU over a 1-yr period. INTERVENTIONS:Medical history, Parsonnet score, intraoperative data (including bypass and ischemic times), APACHE II and III scores, complications, and outcome were collected for each patient. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:One thousand eight patients were entered into the study. The mean Parsonnet score was 7.8 (range 0 to 33), mean APACHE II score 11.8 (range 2 to 33), and mean APACHE III score 42.5 (range 9 to 132). ICU mortality rate was 2.7% and hospital mortality rate was 3.8%. The mean APACHE II predicted risk of dying was 5.31%, which gave a standardized mortality ratio of 0.71. The above scores were all statistically well correlated with hospital mortality. Further, a logistic regression model was developed for the probability of hospital death. This model (which included bypass time, need for inotropes, mean arterial pressure, urea, and Glasgow Coma Scale) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87, while the Parsonnet score had an area of 0.82 and the APACHE II risk of dying had an area of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS:Cardiac surgery remains a difficult area for outcome prediction. A combination of intraoperative and postoperative variables can improve predictive ability.

journal_name

Crit Care Med

journal_title

Critical care medicine

authors

Turner JS,Morgan CJ,Thakrar B,Pepper JR

doi

10.1097/00003246-199511000-00010

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1995-11-01 00:00:00

pages

1843-50

issue

11

eissn

0090-3493

issn

1530-0293

journal_volume

23

pub_type

临床试验,杂志文章
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    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

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  • Stressful intensive care unit medical crises: How individual responses impact on team performance.

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  • Candidemia in nonneutropenic critically ill patients: risk factors for non-albicans Candida spp.

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    更新日期:2008-07-01 00:00:00

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  • Taking values seriously: Ethical challenges in organ donation and transplantation for critical care professionals.

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    更新日期:2007-02-01 00:00:00

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    更新日期:2019-02-01 00:00:00

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