Abstract:
BACKGROUND:The objective of this study was to estimate the number of years after onset of a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program before notable reductions in genital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) will occur in teenagers and young adults in the United States. METHODS:We applied a previously published model of HPV vaccination in the United States and focused on the timing of reductions in genital warts among both sexes and reductions in CIN 2/3 among females. Using different coverage scenarios, the lowest being consistent with current 3-dose coverage in the United States, we estimated the number of years before reductions of 10%, 25%, and 50% would be observed after onset of an HPV vaccination program for ages 12-26 years. RESULTS:The model suggested female-only HPV vaccination in the intermediate coverage scenario will result in a 10% reduction in genital warts within 2-4 years for females aged 15-19 years and a 10% reduction in CIN 2/3 among females aged 20-29 years within 7-11 years. Coverage had a major impact on when reductions would be observed. For example, in the higher coverage scenario a 25% reduction in CIN2/3 would be observed with 8 years compared with 15 years in the lower coverage scenario. CONCLUSIONS:Our model provides estimates of the potential timing and magnitude of the impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 at the population level in the United States. Notable, population-level impacts of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 can occur within a few years after onset of vaccination, particularly among younger age groups. Our results are generally consistent with early reports of declines in genital warts among youth.
journal_name
Vaccinejournal_title
Vaccineauthors
Chesson HW,Ekwueme DU,Saraiya M,Dunne EF,Markowitz LEdoi
10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.06.050subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-08-20 00:00:00pages
3899-905issue
37eissn
0264-410Xissn
1873-2518pii
S0264-410X(13)00842-6journal_volume
31pub_type
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