Estimates of the timing of reductions in genital warts and high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia after onset of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United States.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:The objective of this study was to estimate the number of years after onset of a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program before notable reductions in genital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) will occur in teenagers and young adults in the United States. METHODS:We applied a previously published model of HPV vaccination in the United States and focused on the timing of reductions in genital warts among both sexes and reductions in CIN 2/3 among females. Using different coverage scenarios, the lowest being consistent with current 3-dose coverage in the United States, we estimated the number of years before reductions of 10%, 25%, and 50% would be observed after onset of an HPV vaccination program for ages 12-26 years. RESULTS:The model suggested female-only HPV vaccination in the intermediate coverage scenario will result in a 10% reduction in genital warts within 2-4 years for females aged 15-19 years and a 10% reduction in CIN 2/3 among females aged 20-29 years within 7-11 years. Coverage had a major impact on when reductions would be observed. For example, in the higher coverage scenario a 25% reduction in CIN2/3 would be observed with 8 years compared with 15 years in the lower coverage scenario. CONCLUSIONS:Our model provides estimates of the potential timing and magnitude of the impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 at the population level in the United States. Notable, population-level impacts of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 can occur within a few years after onset of vaccination, particularly among younger age groups. Our results are generally consistent with early reports of declines in genital warts among youth.

journal_name

Vaccine

journal_title

Vaccine

authors

Chesson HW,Ekwueme DU,Saraiya M,Dunne EF,Markowitz LE

doi

10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.06.050

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2013-08-20 00:00:00

pages

3899-905

issue

37

eissn

0264-410X

issn

1873-2518

pii

S0264-410X(13)00842-6

journal_volume

31

pub_type

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