Abstract:
:Cancer mortality risk estimates are essential for planning resource allocation and designing and evaluating cancer prevention and management strategies. However, mortality figures generally become available after a few years, making necessary to develop reliable procedures to provide current and near future mortality risks. In this work, a spatio-temporal P-spline model is used to provide predictions of mortality/incidence counts. The model is appropriate to capture smooth temporal trends and to predict cancer mortality/incidence counts in different regions for future years. The prediction mean squared error of the forecast values as well as an appropriate estimator are derived. Spanish prostate cancer mortality data in the period 1975-2008 will be used to illustrate results with a focus on cancer mortality forecasting in 2009-2011.
journal_name
Stat Methods Med Resjournal_title
Statistical methods in medical researchauthors
Ugarte MD,Goicoa T,Etxeberria J,Militino AFdoi
10.1177/0962280212446366subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-10-01 00:00:00pages
545-60issue
5eissn
0962-2802issn
1477-0334pii
0962280212446366journal_volume
21pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Dependent censoring arises in biomedical studies when the survival outcome of interest is censored by competing risks. In survival data with microarray gene expressions, gene selection based on the univariate Cox regression analyses has been used extensively in medical research, which however, is only valid under the ...
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