Abstract:
:Calibration, the statistical consistency of forecast distributions and the observations, is a central requirement for probabilistic predictions. Calibration of continuous forecasts is typically assessed using the probability integral transform histogram. In this article, we propose significance tests based on scoring rules to assess calibration of continuous predictive distributions. For an ideal normal forecast we derive the first two moments of two commonly used scoring rules: the logarithmic and the continuous ranked probability score. This naturally leads to the construction of two unconditional tests for normal predictions. More generally, we propose a novel score regression approach, where the individual scores are regressed on suitable functions of the predictive variance. This conditional approach is applicable even for certain nonnormal predictions based on the Dawid-Sebastiani score. Two case studies illustrate that the score regression approach has typically more power in detecting miscalibrated forecasts than the other approaches considered, including a recently proposed technique based on conditional exceedance probability curves.
journal_name
Biometricsjournal_title
Biometricsauthors
Held L,Rufibach K,Balabdaoui Fdoi
10.1111/j.1541-0420.2010.01406.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2010-12-01 00:00:00pages
1295-305issue
4eissn
0006-341Xissn
1541-0420pii
BIOM1406journal_volume
66pub_type
杂志文章相关文献
BIOMETRICS文献大全abstract::Epidemiological studies of related individuals are often complicated by the fact that follow-up on the event type of interest is incomplete due to the occurrence of other events. We suggest a class of frailty models with cause-specific hazards for correlated competing events in related individuals. The frailties are b...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12326
更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The availability of data in longitudinal studies is often driven by features of the characteristics being studied. For example, clinical databases are increasingly being used for research to address longitudinal questions. Because visit times in such data are often driven by patient characteristics that may be related...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12501
更新日期:2016-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::In longitudinal studies and in clustered situations often binary and continuous response variables are observed and need to be modeled together. In a recent publication Dunson, Chen, and Harry (2003, Biometrics 59, 521-530) (DCH) propose a Bayesian approach for joint modeling of cluster size and binary and continuous ...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 评论,杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-020X.2005.00409_1.x
更新日期:2005-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::We develop a Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling framework for quantal bioassay settings. The approach is built upon modeling dose-dependent response distributions. We adopt a structured nonparametric prior mixture model, which induces a monotonicity restriction for the dose-response curve. Particular emphasis is ...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12120
更新日期:2014-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::We study publication bias in meta-analysis by supposing there is a population (y, sigma) of studies which give treatment effect estimates y approximately N(theta, sigma(2)). A selection function describes the probability that each study is selected for review. The overall estimate of theta depends on the studies selec...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2006.00705.x
更新日期:2007-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Identifying disease-associated changes in DNA methylation can help us gain a better understanding of disease etiology. Bisulfite sequencing allows the generation of high-throughput methylation profiles at single-base resolution of DNA. However, optimally modeling and analyzing these sparse and discrete sequencing data...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.13307
更新日期:2020-05-21 00:00:00
abstract::In problems with missing or latent data, a standard approach is to first impute the unobserved data, then perform all statistical analyses on the completed dataset--corresponding to the observed data and imputed unobserved data--using standard procedures for complete-data inference. Here, we extend this approach to mo...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341X.2005.031010.x
更新日期:2005-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::This paper considers methods for estimating the relationship between a binary response Y and the genetic effects responsible for a second binary trait Z. The responses Y are observed only for target individuals, and the responses Z are observed only for the relatives of these targets. The analysis consists of two part...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.2000.00808.x
更新日期:2000-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Understanding HIV incidence, the rate at which new infections occur in populations, is critical for tracking and surveillance of the epidemic. In this article, we derive methods for determining sample sizes for cross-sectional surveys to estimate incidence with sufficient precision. We further show how to specify samp...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12336
更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under ari...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.00460.x
更新日期:1999-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::New methods are developed for assessing the extent of interrater agreement when each unit to be rated is characterized by a (possibly empty) subset of a specified set of distinct nominal attributes. For such multiple attribute response data, a two-rater concordance statistic is derived, and associated statistical infe...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:1989-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The class of admissible tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in a multi-allelic system is characterized. The standard goodness-of-fit chi-square tests is shown to be admissible for systems of two or more alleles. The conditional probability distribution required to determine the exact significance level of this test i...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:1980-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Gene-disease association studies based on case-control designs may often be used to identify candidate polymorphisms (markers) conferring disease risk. If a large number of markers are studied, genotyping all markers on all samples is inefficient in resource utilization. Here, we propose an alternative two-stage metho...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341X.2004.00207.x
更新日期:2004-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Cluster analysis has proved to be an invaluable tool for the exploratory and unsupervised analysis of high-dimensional datasets. Among methods for clustering, hierarchical approaches have enjoyed substantial popularity in genomics and other fields for their ability to simultaneously uncover multiple layers of clusteri...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12647
更新日期:2017-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Consider a collection of spatially clustered objects where the clusters are geographically rare. Of interest is estimation of the total number of objects on the site from a sample of plots of equal size. Under these spatial conditions, adaptive cluster sampling of plots is generally useful in improving efficiency in e...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.2000.00503.x
更新日期:2000-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::In clinical studies, longitudinal biomarkers are often used to monitor disease progression and failure time. Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has certain advantages and has emerged as an effective way to mutually enhance information. Typically, a parametric longitudinal model is assumed to facilitate t...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00896.x
更新日期:2008-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::We derive semiparametric methods for estimating and testing treatment effects when censored recurrent event data are available over multiple periods. These methods are based on estimating functions motivated by a working "mixed-Poisson" assumption under which conditioning can eliminate subject-specific random effects....
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00357.x
更新日期:2005-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods are used to fit Bayesian capture-recapture models incorporating heterogeneity in individuals and samples. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities comes from finite mixtures and/or fixed sample effects allowing for interactions. Estimation by RJMCMC allows automa...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2009.01289.x
更新日期:2010-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships bet...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2009.01265.x
更新日期:2010-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Conditional likelihood based on counting processes are combined with a Horvitz-Thompson estimator to yield a population size estimator that is more efficient than the existing ones. Random removals are allowed in the recapturing process. Simulation studies are shown to assess the performance of the proposed estimators...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.2002.00192.x
更新日期:2002-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::The focus of this article is on the nature of the likelihood associated with N-mixture models for repeated count data. It is shown that the infinite sum embedded in the likelihood associated with the Poisson mixing distribution can be expressed in terms of a hypergeometric function and, thence, in closed form. The res...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12521
更新日期:2016-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The estimation of maternal genetic variances by a multivariate maximum likelihood method is discussed. As an illustration the method is applied to data on Tribolium using a model based on partitioning the maternal genetic effect into additive and dominance components. An alternative model due to Falconer (1965) is als...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:1976-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::When a true survival endpoint cannot be assessed for some subjects, an alternative endpoint that measures the true endpoint with error may be collected, which often occurs when obtaining the true endpoint is too invasive or costly. We develop an estimated likelihood function for the situation where we have both uncert...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12316
更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Cancer population studies based on cancer registry databases are widely conducted to address various research questions. In general, cancer registry databases do not collect information on cause of death. The net survival rate is defined as the survival rate if a subject would not die for any causes other than cancer....
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12568
更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::This article demonstrates semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation of a nonlinear growth model for fish lengths using imprecisely measured ages. Data on the species corvina reina, found in the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica, consist of lengths and imprecise ages for 168 fish and precise ages for a subset of 16 fish. T...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.2002.00448.x
更新日期:2002-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::This article develops a variety of influence measures for carrying out perturbation (or sensitivity) analysis to joint models of longitudinal and survival data (JMLS) in Bayesian analysis. A perturbation model is introduced to characterize individual and global perturbations to the three components of a Bayesian model...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01745.x
更新日期:2012-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::For many long-lived animal species, individuals do not breed every year, and are often not accessible during non-breeding periods. Individuals exhibit site fidelity if they return to the same breeding colony or spawning ground when they breed. If capture and recapture is only possible at the breeding site, temporary e...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/biom.12094
更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Differential equations are extensively used for modeling dynamics of physical processes in many scientific fields such as engineering, physics, and biomedical sciences. Parameter estimation of differential equation models is a challenging problem because of high computational cost and high-dimensional parameter space....
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01752.x
更新日期:2012-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::In the analysis of longitudinal or panel data, neglecting the serial correlations among the repeated measurements within subjects may lead to inefficient inference. In particular, when the number of repeated measurements is large, it may be desirable to model the serial correlations more generally. An appealing approa...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1111/biom.12317
更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::We propose a method to estimate the regression coefficients in a competing risks model where the cause-specific hazard for the cause of interest is related to covariates through a proportional hazards relationship and when cause of failure is missing for some individuals. We use multiple imputation procedures to imput...
journal_title:Biometrics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.2001.01191.x
更新日期:2001-12-01 00:00:00