Abstract:
:Vaccinating school-aged children against influenza can reduce age-specific and population-level illness attack rates. Using a stochastic simulation model of influenza transmission, the authors assessed strategies for vaccinating children in the United States, varying the vaccine type, coverage level, and reproductive number R (average number of secondary cases produced by a typical primary case). Results indicated that vaccinating children can substantially reduce population-level illness attack rates over a wide range of scenarios. The greatest absolute reduction in influenza illness cases per season occurred at R values ranging from 1.2 to 1.6 for a given vaccine coverage level. The indirect, total, and overall effects of vaccinating children were strong when transmission intensity was low to intermediate. The indirect effects declined rapidly as transmission intensity increased. In a mild influenza season (R = 1.1), approximately 19 million influenza cases could be prevented by vaccinating 70% of children. At most, nearly 100 million cases of influenza illness could be prevented, depending on the proportion of children vaccinated and the transmission intensity. Given the current worldwide threat of novel influenza A (H1N1), with an estimated R of 1.4-1.6, health officials should consider strategies for vaccinating children against novel influenza A (H1N1) as well as seasonal influenza.
journal_name
Am J Epidemioljournal_title
American journal of epidemiologyauthors
Basta NE,Chao DL,Halloran ME,Matrajt L,Longini IM Jrdoi
10.1093/aje/kwp237subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-09-15 00:00:00pages
679-86issue
6eissn
0002-9262issn
1476-6256pii
kwp237journal_volume
170pub_type
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