Abstract:
BACKGROUND:In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007. METHODS:A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation. RESULTS:The results suggest that Australia's smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020. CONCLUSIONS:Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.
journal_name
Tob Controljournal_title
Tobacco controlauthors
Gartner CE,Barendregt JJ,Hall WDdoi
10.1136/tc.2008.027615subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-06-01 00:00:00pages
183-9issue
3eissn
0964-4563issn
1468-3318pii
tc.2008.027615journal_volume
18pub_type
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