Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007. METHODS:A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation. RESULTS:The results suggest that Australia's smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020. CONCLUSIONS:Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.

journal_name

Tob Control

journal_title

Tobacco control

authors

Gartner CE,Barendregt JJ,Hall WD

doi

10.1136/tc.2008.027615

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-06-01 00:00:00

pages

183-9

issue

3

eissn

0964-4563

issn

1468-3318

pii

tc.2008.027615

journal_volume

18

pub_type

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