Abstract:
:We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.
journal_name
Euro Surveilljournal_title
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletinauthors
Towers S,Feng Zsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-10-15 00:00:00pages
19358issue
41eissn
1025-496Xissn
1560-7917journal_volume
14pub_type
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