Pandemic H1N1 influenza: predicting the course of a pandemic and assessing the efficacy of the planned vaccination programme in the United States.

Abstract:

:We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

journal_name

Euro Surveill

authors

Towers S,Feng Z

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-10-15 00:00:00

pages

19358

issue

41

eissn

1025-496X

issn

1560-7917

journal_volume

14

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Comparison of Leishmania typing results obtained from 16 European clinical laboratories in 2014.

    abstract::Leishmaniasis is endemic in southern Europe, and in other European countries cases are diagnosed in travellers who have visited affected areas both within the continent and beyond. Prompt and accurate diagnosis poses a challenge in clinical practice in Europe. Different methods exist for identification of the infectin...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.49.30418

    authors: Van der Auwera G,Bart A,Chicharro C,Cortes S,Davidsson L,Di Muccio T,Dujardin JC,Felger I,Paglia MG,Grimm F,Harms G,Jaffe CL,Manser M,Ravel C,Robert-Gangneux F,Roelfsema J,Töz S,Verweij JJ,Chiodini PL

    更新日期:2016-12-08 00:00:00

  • Household transmission of invasive group A Streptococcus infections in England: a population-based study, 2009, 2011 to 2013.

    abstract::Invasive group A streptococcal infection has a 15% case fatality rate and a risk of secondary transmission. This retrospective study used two national data sources from England; enhanced surveillance (2009) and a case management system (2011-2013) to identify clusters of severe group A streptococcal disease. Twenty-fo...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.19.30532

    authors: Mearkle R,Saavedra-Campos M,Lamagni T,Usdin M,Coelho J,Chalker V,Sriskandan S,Cordery R,Rawlings C,Balasegaram S

    更新日期:2017-05-11 00:00:00

  • Prolonged colonisation with Escherichia coli O25:ST131 versus other extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing E. coli in a long-term care facility with high endemic level of rectal colonisation, the Netherlands, 2013 to 2014.

    abstract::The extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli clone ST131 (ESBL-ST131) has spread in healthcare settings worldwide. The reasons for its successful spread are unknown, but might include more effective transmission and/or longer persistence. We evaluated the colonisation dynamics of ESBL-produci...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.42.30376

    authors: Overdevest I,Haverkate M,Veenemans J,Hendriks Y,Verhulst C,Mulders A,Couprie W,Bootsma M,Johnson J,Kluytmans J

    更新日期:2016-10-20 00:00:00

  • End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17.

    abstract::IntroductionThe United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicate...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.44.17-00306

    authors: Pebody R,Warburton F,Ellis J,Andrews N,Potts A,Cottrell S,Reynolds A,Gunson R,Thompson C,Galiano M,Robertson C,Gallagher N,Sinnathamby M,Yonova I,Correa A,Moore C,Sartaj M,de Lusignan S,McMenamin J,Zambon M

    更新日期:2017-11-01 00:00:00

  • An outbreak of non-typeable MRSA within a residential care facility.

    abstract::In a household setting within a residential care facility for visually and intellectually disabled people, a resident (index case) was diagnosed with dermal abscesses caused by a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) which was non-typeable by standard pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. All residents and st...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Fanoy E,Helmhout LC,van der Vaart WL,Weijdema K,van Santen-Verheuvel MG,Thijsen SF,de Neeling AJ,van Wamel WJ,Manaskova SH,Kingma-Thijssen JL

    更新日期:2009-01-08 00:00:00

  • Increasing trends of lymphogranuloma venereum among HIV-negative and asymptomatic men who have sex with men, the Netherlands, 2011 to 2017.

    abstract::IntroductionLymphogranuloma venereum (LGV), an invasive form of Chlamydia trachomatis infection, has been reported among (mainly HIV-positive) men who have sex with men (MSM) since 2003. In the Netherlands, LGV testing recommendations changed from selective to universal testing in 2015. Changes in tested populations c...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.14.1900377

    authors: van Aar F,Kroone MM,de Vries HJ,Götz HM,van Benthem BH

    更新日期:2020-04-01 00:00:00

  • The burden of visceral leishmaniasis in Italy from 1982 to 2012: a retrospective analysis of the multi-annual epidemic that occurred from 1989 to 2009.

    abstract::Starting from 1989 Italy experienced an increase of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases over a baseline of 10 to 30 cases reported annually. The number of cases peaked in 2000 and 2004 with more than 200 cases/year, and subsequently declined to reach on average one third of the 2000 peak value in the period after 2010. ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Gramiccia M,Scalone A,Di Muccio T,Orsini S,Fiorentino E,Gradoni L

    更新日期:2013-07-18 00:00:00

  • Prolonged outbreak of B meningococcal disease in the Seine-Maritime department, France, January 2003 to June 2005.

    abstract::Between January 2003 and June 2005, an outbreak of meningococcal disease occurred in the department of Seine-Maritime in northern France. Eighty six cases were notified, giving an average annual incidence of 2.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared with 1.6 in France. An especially affected area was defined as the ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Rouaud P,Perrocheau A,Taha MK,Sesboué C,Forgues AM,Parent du Châtelet I,Levy-Bruhl D

    更新日期:2006-07-01 00:00:00

  • Strong associations and moderate predictive value of early symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 test positivity among healthcare workers, the Netherlands, March 2020.

    abstract::Healthcare workers (n = 803) with mild symptoms were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n = 90 positive) and asked to complete a symptom questionnaire. Anosmia, muscle ache, ocular pain, general malaise, headache, extreme tiredness and fever were associated with positivity. A pred...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.16.2000508

    authors: Tostmann A,Bradley J,Bousema T,Yiek WK,Holwerda M,Bleeker-Rovers C,Ten Oever J,Meijer C,Rahamat-Langendoen J,Hopman J,van der Geest-Blankert N,Wertheim H

    更新日期:2020-04-01 00:00:00

  • Worsening epidemiological situation of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in Europe, assessment by national experts from 37 countries, July 2018.

    abstract::A survey on the epidemiological situation, surveillance and containment activities for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) was conducted in European countries in 2018. All 37 participating countries reported CPE cases. Since 2015, the epidemiological stage of CPE expansion has increased in 11 countries. R...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1900123

    authors: Brolund A,Lagerqvist N,Byfors S,Struelens MJ,Monnet DL,Albiger B,Kohlenberg A,European Antimicrobial Resistance Genes Surveillance Network EURGen-Net Capacity Survey Group.

    更新日期:2019-02-01 00:00:00

  • Mortality in Spain during the heat waves of summer 2003.

    abstract::The effect of the elevated temperatures on mortality experienced in Europe during the summer of 2003 was observed in several countries. This study, carried out in Spain, describes mortality between 1 June and 31 August and evaluates the effect of the heat wave on mortality. Observed deaths were obtained from official ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/esm.10.07.00555-en

    authors: Simon F,Lopez-Abente G,Ballester E,Martinez F

    更新日期:2005-07-01 00:00:00

  • Type and quantity of data needed for an early estimate of transmissibility when an infectious disease emerges.

    abstract::An early estimate of disease transmissibility is essential for a well-informed public health response to a newly emerged infectious disease. In this study, we ask what type and quantity of data are needed for useful estimation of the initial reproduction number (R). It is possible to estimate R from case incidence dat...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Becker NG,Wang D,Clements M

    更新日期:2010-07-01 00:00:00

  • Spillover of a hepatitis A outbreak among men who have sex with men (MSM) to the general population, the Netherlands, 2017.

    abstract::Since 2015, outbreaks of hepatitis A among men who have sex with men (MSM) have been reported worldwide. To examine the impact of these MSM outbreaks in the Netherlands, we combined notification and epidemiological data with sequence analysis. Our results show the hazards of outbreaks within risk-groups spilling over ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.23.1800265

    authors: Friesema IH,Sonder GJ,Petrignani MW,Meiberg AE,van Rijckevorsel GG,Ruijs WL,Vennema H

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • A case of respiratory toxigenic diphtheria: contact tracing results and considerations following a 30-year disease-free interval, Catalonia, Spain, 2015.

    abstract::In May 2015, following a 30-year diphtheria-free interval in Catalonia, an unvaccinated 6-year-old child was diagnosed with diphtheria caused by toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae. After a difficult search for equine-derived diphtheria antitoxin (DAT), the child received the DAT 4 days later but died at the end of ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.13.17-00183

    authors: Jané M,Vidal MJ,Camps N,Campins M,Martínez A,Balcells J,Martin-Gomez MT,Bassets G,Herrera-León S,Foguet A,Maresma M,Follia N,Uriona S,Pumarola T

    更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • Panton-Valentine leukocidin positive MRSA in 2003: the Dutch situation.

    abstract::Analysis of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates in the Netherlands in 2003 revealed that 8% of the hospital isolates carried the loci for Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL). Molecular subtyping showed that most Dutch PVL-MRSA genotypes corresponded to well-documented global epidemic types. The m...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/esm.09.11.00484-en

    authors: Wannet WJB,Heck ME,Pluister GN,Spalburg E,Van Santen MG,Huijsdans XW,Tiemersma E,de Neeling AJ

    更新日期:2004-11-01 00:00:00

  • Surveillance of vancomycin-resistant enterococci reveals shift in dominating clones and national spread of a vancomycin-variable vanA Enterococcus faecium ST1421-CT1134 clone, Denmark, 2015 to March 2019.

    abstract::We describe clonal shifts in vanA Enterococcus faecium isolates from clinical samples obtained from patients in Denmark from 2015 to the first quarter (Q1) of 2019. During Q1 2019, the vancomycin-variable enterococci (VVE) ST1421-CT1134 vanA E. faecium became the most dominant vanA E. faecium clone and has spread to a...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.34.1900503

    authors: Hammerum AM,Justesen US,Pinholt M,Roer L,Kaya H,Worning P,Nygaard S,Kemp M,Clausen ME,Nielsen KL,Samulioniené J,Kjærsgaard M,Østergaard C,Coia J,Søndergaard TS,Gaini S,Schønning K,Westh H,Hasman H,Holzknecht BJ

    更新日期:2019-08-01 00:00:00

  • A simple mathematical approach to deciding the dosage of vaccine against pandemic H1N1 influenza.

    abstract::Results from early clinical trials have shown that a single dose of pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine may generate sufficient antibody response, but the relevance of this fact to public health decision making has yet to be clarified. The present study compares the risk of clinical attack (i.e. clinical attack rate) betw...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/ese.14.45.19396-en

    authors: Nishiura H,Iwata K

    更新日期:2009-11-12 00:00:00

  • Malaria in travellers to Gambia.

    abstract::Malaria incidence is reportedly declining steadily in many parts of the world, including in at least several African countries. The incidence of imported malaria is also declining in a number of European countries. However, incidence rates in travellers, both European tourists and the so called VFR (visiting friends a...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 社论

    doi:

    authors: Bisoffi Z

    更新日期:2008-12-18 00:00:00

  • Survey on legislation regarding wet cooling systems in European countries.

    abstract::Wet cooling systems are often associated with large outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease. Several European countries have legislation for registering such systems. The authors aimed to obtain an overview of the situation in Europe. A questionnaire survey was sent to 35 of the countries that collaborate in the European W...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Ricketts KD,Joseph C,Lee J,Wewalka G,European Working Group for Legionella Infections.

    更新日期:2008-09-18 00:00:00

  • The proof of the pudding is in the eating: an outbreak of emetic syndrome after a kindergarten excursion, Berlin, Germany, December 2007.

    abstract::An outbreak of food poisoning (emetic syndrome) occurred in three kindergartens (A, B and C) in Berlin, Germany, on 3 December 2007 after an excursion during which food was served. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among the kindergarten children and personnel who participated in the trip. The overall attack r...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Kamga Wambo GO,Burckhardt F,Frank C,Hiller P,Wichmann-Schauer H,Zuschneid I,Hentschke J,Hitzbleck T,Contzen M,Suckau M,Stark K

    更新日期:2011-04-14 00:00:00

  • Effective control measures limited measles outbreak after extensive nosocomial exposures in January-February 2008 in Gothenburg, Sweden.

    abstract::In January-February 2008, one imported case of measles initiated a series of exposures with around 380 nosocomial secondary contacts. Susceptible individuals were traced early and control measures were initiated that managed to limit the consequences considerably. Only four secondary cases were identified by the end o...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Follin P,Dotevall L,Jertborn M,Khalid Y,Liljeqvist JA,Muntz S,Qvarfordt I,Söderström A,Wiman A,Ahrén C,Osterberg P,Johansen K

    更新日期:2008-07-24 00:00:00

  • Trends and determinants of antimicrobial susceptibility of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in the Netherlands, 2007 to 2015.

    abstract::BackgroundNeisseria gonorrhoeae antibiotic resistance surveillance is important to maintain adequate treatment. We analysed 2007-15 data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance (GRAS), which currently includes 19 of 25 sexually transmitted infection (STI) centres in the Netherlands. Methods: From...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.36.1700565

    authors: Hofstraat SH,Götz HM,van Dam AP,van der Sande MA,van Benthem BH

    更新日期:2018-09-01 00:00:00

  • Outbreaks of monophasic Salmonella enterica serovar 4,[5],12:i:- in Luxembourg, 2006.

    abstract::A monophasic Salmonella enterica serovar 4,[5],12:i:- phage type DT193 emerged as the dominant serovar in Luxembourg in 2006, when it caused two major outbreaks involving 133 laboratory-confirmed human cases, 24 hospitalisations, and one death. The outbreak strain had an uncommon pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patte...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/esm.12.06.00719-en

    authors: Mossong J,Marques P,Ragimbeau C,Huberty-Krau P,Losch S,Meyer G,Moris G,Strottner C,Rabsch W,Schneider F

    更新日期:2007-06-01 00:00:00

  • Suboptimal MMR2 vaccine coverage in six counties in Norway detected through the national immunisation registry, April 2014 to April 2017.

    abstract::In 2014, Norway became aware of potential low vaccination coverage for the second dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR2) in six of 19 counties. This was detected by comparing the national coverage (NC) for 16-year-olds extracted from the national immunisation registry SYSVAK with the annual status update for eli...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.17.30518

    authors: Hagerup-Jenssen M,Kongsrud S,Riise ØR

    更新日期:2017-04-27 00:00:00

  • EWGLI: a European surveillance scheme for travel associated legionnaire s disease.

    abstract::The European Working Group for Legionella Infections (EWGLI) was set up in 1986 and introduced the European Surveillance Scheme for Travel Associated Legionnaires Disease in 1987. The microbiologists working in reference laborat-ories and the epidemiolog ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/esm.01.05.00169-en

    authors: Hutchinson EJ,Joseph C,Bartlett CL

    更新日期:1996-05-01 00:00:00

  • Finnish new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis escaping detection in the Aptima Combo 2 assay also present in Örebro County, Sweden, May 2019.

    abstract::We identified the first two cases of the Finnish new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis (F-nvCT) beyond Finland in two clinical urogenital specimens in Örebro County, Sweden. These Aptima Combo 2 assay-negative specimens were Aptima Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) assay positive and had the characteristic C1515T mutation in ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.26.1900370

    authors: Unemo M,Hansen M,Hadad R,Lindroth Y,Fredlund H,Puolakkainen M,Sundqvist M

    更新日期:2019-06-01 00:00:00

  • Re-emergence of brucellosis in cattle in France and risk for human health.

    abstract::A case of human brucellosis was diagnosed in France in January 2012. The investigation demonstrated that the case had been contaminated by raw milk cheese from a neighbouring dairy farm. As France has been officially free of bovine brucellosis since 2005, veterinary investigations are being conducted to determine the ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Mailles A,Rautureau S,Le Horgne JM,Poignet-Leroux B,d'Arnoux C,Dennetière G,Faure M,Lavigne JP,Bru JP,Garin-Bastuji B

    更新日期:2012-07-26 00:00:00

  • Characterisation of HIV-1 transmission clusters and drug-resistant mutations in Denmark, 2004 to 2016.

    abstract::This study describes the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance mutations among 1,815 patients in Denmark from 2004 to 2016 and characterises transmission clusters. POL sequences were analysed for subtype, drug resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationship. The prevalence of surveillance...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.44.1700633

    authors: Petersen A,Cowan SA,Nielsen J,Fischer TK,Fonager J

    更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00

  • Bacterial resistance to antibiotics in France : a public health priority.

    abstract::For a few years, France has been faced to a rapid spread of anti-microbial resistance in hospitals and in general practice despite the many recommendations issued to solve this problem. In 1999, the Institut de Veille Sanitaire conducted a collective expe ...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/esm.05.12.00019-en

    authors: Aubry Damon H,Carlet J,Courvalin P,Desenclos JC,Drucker J,Guillemot D,Jarlier V,Regnier B,Schlemmer B

    更新日期:2000-12-01 00:00:00

  • A case of Japanese encephalitis in a 20 year-old Spanish sportsman, February 2013.

    abstract::We report a severe case of imported Japanese encephalitis (JE) in a healthy young Spanish traveller who developed symptoms after spending three weeks in a touristic area of Thailand. The patient was diagnosed in Thailand and subsequently transferred to Barcelona, Spain, where the Thai laboratory results were confirmed...

    journal_title:Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es2013.18.35.20573

    authors: Doti P,Castro P,Martínez MJ,Zboromyrska Y,Aldasoro E,Inciarte A,Requena-Méndez A,Milisenda J,Fernández S,Nicolás JM,Muñoz J

    更新日期:2013-08-29 00:00:00