Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Optimal cutoff values for tests results involving continuous variables are often derived in a data-driven way. This approach, however, may lead to overly optimistic measures of diagnostic accuracy. We evaluated the magnitude of the bias in sensitivity and specificity associated with data-driven selection of cutoff values and examined potential solutions to reduce this bias. METHODS:Different sample sizes, distributions, and prevalences were used in a simulation study. We compared data-driven estimates of accuracy based on the Youden index with the true values and calculated the median bias. Three alternative approaches (assuming a specific distribution, leave-one-out, smoothed ROC curve) were examined for their ability to reduce this bias. RESULTS:The magnitude of bias caused by data-driven optimization of cutoff values was inversely related to sample size. If the true values for sensitivity and specificity are both 84%, the estimates in studies with a sample size of 40 will be approximately 90%. If the sample size increases to 200, the estimates will be 86%. The distribution of the test results had little impact on the amount of bias when sample size was held constant. More robust methods of optimizing cutoff values were less prone to bias, but the performance deteriorated if the underlying assumptions were not met. CONCLUSIONS:Data-driven selection of the optimal cutoff value can lead to overly optimistic estimates of sensitivity and specificity, especially in small studies. Alternative methods can reduce this bias, but finding robust estimates for cutoff values and accuracy requires considerable sample sizes.
journal_name
Clin Chemjournal_title
Clinical chemistryauthors
Leeflang MM,Moons KG,Reitsma JB,Zwinderman AHdoi
10.1373/clinchem.2007.096032subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-04-01 00:00:00pages
729-37issue
4eissn
0009-9147issn
1530-8561pii
clinchem.2007.096032journal_volume
54pub_type
杂志文章abstract::We describe a mechanized chromogenic assay for factor X, the results of which correlate well with those for the one-stage clotting assays for factor X in which it is activated either via the extrinsic pathway by thromboplastin or directly by Russell's viper venom. We purified human factor X and raised monospecific ant...
journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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abstract::We used a modification of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), involving two pairs of oligonucleotide primers, to detect a mutation in the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor gene, commonly occurring among patients with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) in Finland. This mutation, called FH-Helsinki, involves a lar...
journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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更新日期:2001-01-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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更新日期:1978-02-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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doi:
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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doi:
更新日期:1985-09-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:1992-07-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Clinical chemistry
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doi:
更新日期:1981-10-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:1983-12-01 00:00:00
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