Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B.

Abstract:

:The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Hens N,Aerts M,Shkedy Z,Kung'u Kimani P,Kojouhorova M,van Damme P,Beutels P

doi

10.1017/S0950268807008692

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2008-03-01 00:00:00

pages

341-51

issue

3

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268807008692

journal_volume

136

pub_type

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