Abstract:
:The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Hens N,Aerts M,Shkedy Z,Kung'u Kimani P,Kojouhorova M,van Damme P,Beutels Pdoi
10.1017/S0950268807008692subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-03-01 00:00:00pages
341-51issue
3eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268807008692journal_volume
136pub_type
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