Abstract:
:The objective of this article is to develop a hypothesis-testing procedure to determine whether a common source outbreak has ended. We consider the case when neither the calendar date of exposure to the pathogen nor the exact incubation period distribution is known. The hypothesis-testing procedure is based on the spacings between ordered calendar dates of disease onset of the cases. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the robustness of the methods to various models for the incubation period of infectious diseases. We investigated the impact of multiple testing on the overall outbreak-wise type I error probability. We derive expressions for the outbreak-wise type I error probability and show that multiple testing has minimal effect on inflating that error probability. The results are discussed in the context of the 2001 U.S. anthrax outbreak.
journal_name
Biometricsjournal_title
Biometricsauthors
Brookmeyer R,You Xdoi
10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00421.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2006-03-01 00:00:00pages
61-5issue
1eissn
0006-341Xissn
1541-0420pii
BIOM421journal_volume
62pub_type
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