MELD score is better than Child-Pugh score in predicting 3-month survival of patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND/AIMS:Patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are at risk of early death due to end-stage liver failure. The aim of this study was to compare model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores as predictors of survival after TIPS. METHODS:We studied 140 cirrhotic patients treated with elective TIPS. Concordance (c)-statistic was used to assess the ability of MELD or Child-Pugh scores to predict 3-month survival. The prediction of overall survivals was estimated by comparing actuarial curves of subgroups of patients stratified according to either Child-Pugh scores or MELD risk scores. RESULTS:During a median follow-up of 23.7 months, 55 patients died, 14 underwent liver transplantation and seven were lost to follow-up. For 3-month survival, the discrimination power of MELD score was superior to Child-Pugh score (0.84 vs. 0.70, z=2.07; P=0.038). Unlike Pugh score, MELD score identified two subgroups of Child C patients with different overall survivals (P=0.027). The comparison between observed and predicted survivals showed that MELD score overrates death risk. CONCLUSIONS:MELD score is superior to Child-Pugh score as predictor of short-term outcome after TIPS. Its accuracy, however, decreases for long-term predictions.

journal_name

J Hepatol

journal_title

Journal of hepatology

authors

Salerno F,Merli M,Cazzaniga M,Valeriano V,Rossi P,Lovaria A,Meregaglia D,Nicolini A,Lubatti L,Riggio O

doi

10.1016/s0168-8278(01)00309-9

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-04-01 00:00:00

pages

494-500

issue

4

eissn

0168-8278

issn

1600-0641

pii

S0168827801003099

journal_volume

36

pub_type

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