Development and application of a prediction model for dental caries.

Abstract:

:The development and validation of a caries prediction model comprising 13 sociodemographic and dental examination variables on Grade 1 and Grade 5 children in the National Preventive Dentistry Demonstration Program are described. The objective was to derive a method of predicting children at high risk to caries early in order that preventive measures might be undertaken. True high risk children were defined in two ways: highest 25% of children based on their 4-yr DMFS increment, and their total DMFS score at the end of the study. In both cases, children predicted to be at high risk were defined as the 25% with the highest discriminant score. Discriminant function and logistic regression analyses were used to determine the extent to which the 13 variables collectively discriminated between true high risk and non-high risk children so defined. Sensitivity was approximately 0.50 and specificity around 0.82, using the 4-yr increment as the criterion for defining true high risk, and approximately 0.64 and 0.88, respectively, using the final DMFS score for defining true high risk.

authors

Abernathy JR,Graves RC,Bohannan HM,Stamm JW,Greenberg BG,Disney JA

doi

10.1111/j.1600-0528.1987.tb00475.x

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1987-02-01 00:00:00

pages

24-8

issue

1

eissn

0301-5661

issn

1600-0528

journal_volume

15

pub_type

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