Abstract:
:Shelter-in-place and other confinement strategies implemented in the current COVID-19 pandemic have created stratified patterns of contacts between people: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between the households. The epidemic transmission dynamics is significantly modified as a consequence. We introduce a minimal model that incorporates these household effects in the framework of mean-field theory and numerical simulations. We show that the reproduction number R 0 depends on the household size in a surprising way: linearly for relatively small households, and as a square root of size for larger households. We discuss the implications of the findings for the lockdown, test, tracing, and isolation policies.
journal_name
Phys Bioljournal_title
Physical biologyauthors
Huber G,Kamb M,Kawagoe K,Li LM,Veytsman B,Yllanes D,Zigmond Ddoi
10.1088/1478-3975/abb209subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-10-21 00:00:00pages
065010issue
6eissn
1478-3967issn
1478-3975journal_volume
17pub_type
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