Abstract:
:The basic reproduction number R 0 of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. Here, we used an SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates of the doubling time in the near-exponential phases of epidemic progression in China, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, Switzerland and New York State, we estimated that R 0 lies in the range 4.7-11.4. We explained this discrepancy by performing stochastic simulations of model dynamics in a population with a small proportion of super-spreaders. The simulations revealed two-phase dynamics, in which an initial phase of relatively slow epidemic progression diverts to a faster phase upon appearance of infectious super-spreaders. Early estimates obtained for this initial phase may suggest lower R 0 .
journal_name
R Soc Open Scijournal_title
Royal Society open scienceauthors
Kochańczyk M,Grabowski F,Lipniacki Tdoi
10.1098/rsos.200786subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-09-23 00:00:00pages
200786issue
9issn
2054-5703pii
rsos200786journal_volume
7pub_type
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