Abstract：
:We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solved exactly, even in the presence of a time-dependent infection rate. This delay model has a higher degree of accuracy than that of the so-called SIR model, commonly used in epidemiology, which, instead, is formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations. We apply this model to describe the outbreak of the new infectious disease, Covid-19, in Italy, taking into account the containment measures implemented by the government in order to mitigate the spreading of the virus and the social costs for the population.
journal_name
Sci Repjournal_title
Scientific reportsauthors
Dell'Anna Ldoi
10.1038/s41598-020-72529-ysubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-09-25 00:00:00pages
15763issue
1issn
2045-2322pii
10.1038/s41598-020-72529-yjournal_volume
10pub_type
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