Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse.

Abstract:

:Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075-2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1-2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.

journal_name

Nat Commun

journal_title

Nature communications

authors

Holsman KK,Haynie AC,Hollowed AB,Reum JCP,Aydin K,Hermann AJ,Cheng W,Faig A,Ianelli JN,Kearney KA,Punt AE

doi

10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-09-11 00:00:00

pages

4579

issue

1

issn

2041-1723

pii

10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3

journal_volume

11

pub_type

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