Abstract：
:The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon-climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.
journal_name
Nat Communjournal_title
Nature communicationsauthors
Nitzbon J,Westermann S,Langer M,Martin LCP,Strauss J,Laboor S,Boike Jdoi
10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-05-04 00:00:00pages
2201issue
1issn
2041-1723pii
10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8journal_volume
11pub_type
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