A unifying framework for the transient parasite dynamics of migratory hosts.

Abstract:

:Migrations allow animals to track seasonal changes in resources, find mates, and avoid harsh climates, but these regular, long-distance movements also have implications for parasite dynamics and animal health. Migratory animals have been dubbed "superspreaders" of infection, but migration can also reduce parasite burdens within host populations via migratory escape from contaminated habitats and transmission hotspots, migratory recovery due to parasite mortality, and migratory culling of infected individuals. Here, we show that a single migratory host-macroparasite model can give rise to these different phenomena under different parametrizations, providing a unifying framework for a mechanistic understanding of the parasite dynamics of migratory animals. Importantly, our model includes the impact of parasite burden on host movement capability during migration, which can lead to "parasite-induced migratory stalling" due to a positive feedback between increasing parasite burdens and reduced movement. Our results provide general insight into the conditions leading to different health outcomes in migratory wildlife. Our approach lays the foundation for tactical models that can help understand, predict, and mitigate future changes of disease risk in migratory wildlife that may arise from shifting migratory patterns, loss of migratory behavior, or climate effects on parasite development, mortality, and transmission.

authors

Peacock SJ,Krkošek M,Lewis MA,Molnár PK

doi

10.1073/pnas.1908777117

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-05-19 00:00:00

pages

10897-10903

issue

20

eissn

0027-8424

issn

1091-6490

pii

1908777117

journal_volume

117

pub_type

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