Abstract:
:The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is commonly used for assessing the discriminative ability of prediction models even though the measure is criticized for being clinically irrelevant and lacking an intuitive interpretation. Every tutorial explains how the coordinates of the ROC curve are obtained from the risk distributions of diseased and non-diseased individuals, but it has not become common sense that therewith the ROC plot is just another way of presenting these risk distributions. We show how the ROC curve is an alternative way to present risk distributions of diseased and non-diseased individuals and how the shape of the ROC curve informs about the overlap of the risk distributions. For example, ROC curves are rounded when the prediction model included variables with similar effect on disease risk and have an angle when, for example, one binary risk factor has a stronger effect; and ROC curves are stepped rather than smooth when the sample size or incidence is low, when the prediction model is based on a relatively small set of categorical predictors. This alternative perspective on the ROC plot invalidates most purported limitations of the AUC and attributes others to the underlying risk distributions. AUC is a measure of the discriminative ability of prediction models. The assessment of prediction models should be supplemented with other metrics to assess their clinical utility.
journal_name
Int J Epidemioljournal_title
International journal of epidemiologyauthors
Janssens ACJW,Martens FKdoi
10.1093/ije/dyz274subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-08-01 00:00:00pages
1397-1403issue
4eissn
0300-5771issn
1464-3685pii
5714095journal_volume
49pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:The aims of this study were to examine the prevalence of drug use, and how morbidity, use of health services, self-evaluated health, demographic pattern and lifestyle characteristics influence drug use in a general population. METHODS:The study was carried out in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway. A sample...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/23.6.1262
更新日期:1994-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The European Atherosclerosis Research Study--EARS--is a multicentre collaborative project sponsored by the European Community. Its main objective is to study, in young people, the biological expression of a paternal history of premature acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and the relative share of heredity and environme...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
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更新日期:1994-06-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
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更新日期:2013-10-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/17.3.520
更新日期:1988-09-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:1984-03-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:2020-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest burden of HIV in the world and a rising prevalence of cardiometabolic disease; however, the interrelationship between HIV, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cardiometabolic traits is not well described in SSA populations. METHODS:We conducted a systematic review and m...
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:1983-06-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
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更新日期:2002-06-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2001-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/18.4.842
更新日期:1989-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/29.1.100
更新日期:2000-02-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
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更新日期:2010-06-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
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更新日期:1990-06-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2008-06-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2006-12-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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更新日期:2009-02-01 00:00:00