The Scale-Up of the Global Surgical Workforce: Can Estimates be Achieved by 2030?

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery showed that countries with surgeon, anesthetist, and obstetrician (SAO) densities of 20-40 SAO/100,000 population were associated with improved health outcomes and recommended a global surgical workforce scale-up by 2030. Whether countries would be able to achieve such scale-up efforts in that time-frame is unknown. METHODS:A differential equation model was used to estimate the growth rate and number of SAO necessary for each country to reach the aforementioned SAO densities. Workforce data from Mexico and India were used to estimate achievable rates of SAO scale-up for middle- and low-income countries, respectively. Secular surgical growth rates were estimated to demonstrate what might occur without dedicated scale-up efforts. RESULTS:To reach at least 20 SAO/100,000 population in all countries by 2030, over 808 thousand SAO need to be trained by 2030. To reach at least 40 SAO/100,000 population, over 2.1 million SAO need to be trained. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to Mexico's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 66% of countries would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to India's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 56% would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. CONCLUSION:With dedicated efforts in surgical workforce scale-up, significant gains in SAO density can be made worldwide. However, without intervention, many countries are unlikely to improve their current workforce densities. Investments in workforce scale-up are likely to yield workforce gains that mirror current resource states.

journal_name

World J Surg

journal_title

World journal of surgery

authors

Daniels KM,Riesel JN,Verguet S,Meara JG,Shrime MG

doi

10.1007/s00268-019-05329-9

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-04-01 00:00:00

pages

1053-1061

issue

4

eissn

0364-2313

issn

1432-2323

pii

10.1007/s00268-019-05329-9

journal_volume

44

pub_type

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