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Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading.

Abstract：

:Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 "Pareto" rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

journal_name

Nat Commun

journal_title

Nature communications

authors

Cooper L,Kang SY,Bisanzio D,Maxwell K,Rodriguez-Barraquer I,Greenhouse B,Drakeley C,Arinaitwe E,G Staedke S,Gething PW,Eckhoff P,Reiner RC Jr,Hay SI,Dorsey G,Kamya MR,Lindsay SW,Grenfell BT,Smith DL

doi

10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-09-02 00:00:00

pages

3939

issue

1

issn

2041-1723

pii

10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

journal_volume

10

pub_type

杂志文章

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