Life Expectancy: Frequently Used, but Hardly Understood.

Abstract:

:Period life expectancy is one of the most used summary indicators for the overall health of a population. Its levels and trends direct health policies, and researchers try to identify the determining risk factors to assess and forecast future developments. The use of period life expectancy is often based on the assumption that it directly reflects the mortality conditions of a certain year. Accordingly, the explanation for changes in life expectancy are typically sought in factors that have an immediate impact on current mortality conditions. It is frequently overlooked, however, that this indicator can also be affected by at least three kinds of effects, in particular in the situation of short-term fluctuations: cohort effects, heterogeneity effects, and tempo effects. We demonstrate their possible impact with the example of the almost Europe-wide decrease in life expectancy in 2015, which caused a series of reports about an upsurge of a health crisis, and we show that the consideration of these effects can lead to different conclusions. Therefore, we want to raise an awareness concerning the sensitivity of life expectancy to sudden changes and the menaces a misled interpretation of this indicator can cause.

journal_name

Gerontology

journal_title

Gerontology

authors

Luy M,Di Giulio P,Di Lego V,Lazarevič P,Sauerberg M

doi

10.1159/000500955

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-01-01 00:00:00

pages

95-104

issue

1

eissn

0304-324X

issn

1423-0003

pii

000500955

journal_volume

66

pub_type

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