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A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models.

Abstract：

:A major conundrum in climate science is how to account for dependence between climate models. This complicates interpretation of probabilistic projections derived from such models. Here we show that this problem can be addressed using a novel method to test multiple non-exclusive hypotheses, and to make predictions under such hypotheses. We apply the method to probabilistically estimate the level of global warming needed for a September ice-free Arctic, using an ensemble of historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 emissions scenario climate model runs. We show that not accounting for model dependence can lead to biased projections. Incorporating more constraints on models may minimize the impact of neglecting model non-exclusivity. Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear at between approximately 2 and 2.5 K of global warming. Yet, limiting the warming to 1.5 K under the Paris agreement may not be sufficient to prevent the ice-free Arctic.

journal_name

Nat Commun

journal_title

Nature communications

authors

Olson R,An SI,Fan Y,Chang W,Evans JP,Lee JY

doi

10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-07-09 00:00:00

pages

3016

issue

1

issn

2041-1723

pii

10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x

journal_volume

10

pub_type

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