Abstract:
:The influence of meteorological determinants on tuberculosis (TB) incidence remains severely under-discussed, especially through the perspective of time series analysis. In the current study, we used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to analyze a 10-year series of consecutive surveillance data. We found that, after effectively controlling for autocorrelation, the changes in meteorological factors related to temperature, humidity, wind and sunshine were significantly associated with subsequent fluctuations in TB incidence: average temperature was inversely associated with TB incidence at a lag period of 2 months; total precipitation and minimum relative humidity were also inversely associated with TB incidence at lag periods of 3 and 4 months, respectively; average wind velocity and total sunshine hours exhibited an instant rather than lagged influence on TB incidence. Our study results suggest that preceding meteorological factors may have a noticeable effect on future TB incidence; informed prevention and preparedness measures for TB can therefore be constructed on the basis of meteorological variations.
journal_name
Sci Repjournal_title
Scientific reportsauthors
Xiao Y,He L,Chen Y,Wang Q,Meng Q,Chang W,Xiong L,Yu Zdoi
10.1038/s41598-018-28426-6subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-07-03 00:00:00pages
10053issue
1issn
2045-2322pii
10.1038/s41598-018-28426-6journal_volume
8pub_type
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