Abstract:
:New vaccine production technologies can significantly shorten the timelines for availability of a strain-specific vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic. We sought to evaluate the potential benefits of early vaccination in reducing the clinical attack rate (CAR), taking into account the timing and speed of vaccination roll-out. Various scenarios corresponding to the transmissibility of a pandemic strain and vaccine prioritization strategies were simulated using an agent-based model of disease spread in Ontario, the largest Canadian province. We found that the relative reduction of the CAR reached 60% (90%CI: 44-100%) in a best-case scenario, in which the pandemic strain was moderately transmissible, vaccination started 4 weeks before the first imported case, the vaccine administration rate was 4 times higher than its average for seasonal influenza, and the vaccine efficacy was up to 90%. But the relative reductions in the CAR decreased significantly when the vaccination campaign was delayed or the administration rate reduced. In urban settings with similar characteristics to our population study, early availability and high rates of vaccine administration has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza cases. Low rates of vaccine administration or uptake can potentially offset the benefits of early vaccination.
journal_name
Sci Repjournal_title
Scientific reportsauthors
Champredon D,Laskowski M,Charland N,Moghadas SMdoi
10.1038/s41598-018-24764-7subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-04-24 00:00:00pages
6492issue
1issn
2045-2322pii
10.1038/s41598-018-24764-7journal_volume
8pub_type
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