Abstract:
:Models of biological processes are often subject to different sources of noise. Developing an understanding of the combined effects of different types of uncertainty is an open challenge. In this paper, we study a variant of the susceptible-infective-recovered model of epidemic spread, which combines both agent-to-agent heterogeneity and intrinsic noise. We focus on epidemic cycles, driven by the stochasticity of infection and recovery events, and study in detail how heterogeneity in susceptibilities and propensities to pass on the disease affects these quasi-cycles. While the system can only be described by a large hierarchical set of equations in the transient regime, we derive a reduced closed set of equations for population-level quantities in the stationary regime. We analytically obtain the spectra of quasi-cycles in the linear-noise approximation. We find that the characteristic frequency of these cycles is typically determined by population averages of susceptibilities and infectivities, but that their amplitude depends on higher-order moments of the heterogeneity. We also investigate the synchronisation properties and phase lag between different groups of susceptible and infected individuals.
journal_name
Sci Repjournal_title
Scientific reportsauthors
Herrerías-Azcué F,Galla Tdoi
10.1038/s41598-017-12606-xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-10-11 00:00:00pages
13008issue
1issn
2045-2322pii
10.1038/s41598-017-12606-xjournal_volume
7pub_type
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