Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

Abstract:

:This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

journal_name

Sci Rep

journal_title

Scientific reports

authors

Kim ST,Jeong HI,Jin FF

doi

10.1038/s41598-017-05221-3

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-07-20 00:00:00

pages

6029

issue

1

issn

2045-2322

pii

10.1038/s41598-017-05221-3

journal_volume

7

pub_type

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