Prognostic models for locally advanced cervical cancer: external validation of the published models.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVE:To externally validate the prognostic models for predicting the time-dependent outcome in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) who were treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy in an independent cohort. METHODS:A historical cohort of 297 women with LACC who were treated with radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy from 1999 to 2014 at the 12 de Octubre University Hospital (H12O), Madrid, Spain. The external validity of prognostic models was quantified regarding discrimination, calibration, measures of overall performance, and decision curve analyses. RESULTS:The review identified 8 studies containing 13 prognostic models. Different (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics [FIGO] stages, parametrium involvement, hydronephrosis, location of positive nodes, and race) but related cohorts with validation cohort (5-year overall survival [OS]=70%; 5-year disease-free survival [DFS]=64%; average age of 50; and over 79% squamous cell) were evaluated. The following models exhibited good external validity in terms of discrimination and calibration but limited clinical utility: the OS model at 3 year from Kidd et al.'s study (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]=0.69; threshold of clinical utility [TCU] between 36% and 50%), the models of DFS at 1 year from Kidd et al.'s study (AUROC=0.64; TCU between 24% and 32%) and 2 years from Rose et al.'s study (AUROC=0.70; TCU between 19% and 58%) and the distant recurrence model at 5 years from Kang et al.'s study (AUROC=0.67; TCU between 12% and 36%). CONCLUSION:The external validation revealed the statistical and clinical usefulness of 4 prognostic models published in the literature.

journal_name

J Gynecol Oncol

authors

Lora D,Gómez de la Cámara A,Fernández SP,Enríquez de Salamanca R,Gómez JFPR

doi

10.3802/jgo.2017.28.e58

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-09-01 00:00:00

pages

e58

issue

5

eissn

2005-0380

issn

2005-0399

pii

28.e58

journal_volume

28

pub_type

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