Abstract：
:The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study.
journal_name
Nat Communjournal_title
Nature communicationsauthors
Su H,Jiang JH,Neelin JD,Shen TJ,Zhai C,Yue Q,Wang Z,Huang L,Choi YS,Stephens GL,Yung YLdoi
10.1038/ncomms15771subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-06-07 00:00:00pages
15771issn
2041-1723pii
ncomms15771journal_volume
8pub_type
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