Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis.

Abstract:

:Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial.We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities.According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively.The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients.

journal_name

Medicine (Baltimore)

journal_title

Medicine

authors

Chen M,Lu X,Hu L,Liu P,Zhao W,Yan H,Tang L,Zhu Y,Xiao Z,Chen L,Tan H

doi

10.1097/MD.0000000000006923

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-05-01 00:00:00

pages

e6923

issue

20

eissn

0025-7974

issn

1536-5964

pii

00005792-201705190-00027

journal_volume

96

pub_type

杂志文章

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