Decadal predictability without ocean dynamics.

Abstract:

:This paper shows that the most predictable components of internal variability in coupled atmosphere-ocean models are remarkably similar to the most predictable components of climate models without interactive ocean dynamics (i.e., models whose ocean is represented by a 50-m-deep slab ocean mixed layer with no interactive currents). Furthermore, a linear regression model derived solely from dynamical model output can skillfully predict observed anomalies in these components at least a year or two in advance, indicating that these model-derived components and associated linear dynamics are realistic. These results suggest that interactive ocean circulation is not essential for the existence of multiyear predictability previously identified in coupled models and observations.

authors

Srivastava A,DelSole T

doi

10.1073/pnas.1614085114

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-02-28 00:00:00

pages

2177-2182

issue

9

eissn

0027-8424

issn

1091-6490

pii

1614085114

journal_volume

114

pub_type

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