HbA1c as a predictor of diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus.

Abstract:

AIM:We wanted to investigate third-trimester HbA1c as a predictor of diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS:Women with GDM were followed up prospectively for five years from pregnancy to detect the development of diabetes. The ability of HbA1c to predict diabetes was evaluated with receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS:By five years, 73 of 196 women had been diagnosed with diabetes. An optimal cut-off point for HbA1c of 36mmol/mol (5.4%) could predict diabetes with 45% sensitivity and 92% specificity. For HbA1c ≥39mmol/mol (≥5.7%), sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value were 30%, 97%, and 91%, respectively. In logistic regression analysis, adjusting for the diagnostic glucose concentration during pregnancy, HbA1c levels in the upper quartile (≥36mmol/mol) were associated with a 5.5-fold increased risk of diabetes. CONCLUSION:Third-trimester HbA1c levels in the pre-diabetes range revealed women with post-partum diabetes with high specificity and high positive predictive value. HbA1c testing could be used as a strategy to select high-risk women for lifestyle interventions aimed at prevention of diabetes starting during pregnancy. The results should encourage further validation in other populations using new diagnostic criteria for GDM.

journal_name

Prim Care Diabetes

journal_title

Primary care diabetes

authors

Claesson R,Ignell C,Shaat N,Berntorp K

doi

10.1016/j.pcd.2016.09.002

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-02-01 00:00:00

pages

46-51

issue

1

eissn

1751-9918

issn

1878-0210

pii

S1751-9918(16)30098-5

journal_volume

11

pub_type

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