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A predictive model for carcinogenesis in patients with chronic hepatitis B undergoing entecavir therapy and its validation.

Abstract：

:We created a model to predict the development of liver carcinogenesis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) undergoing entecavir (ETV) therapy and to validate the accuracy using an independent dataset.A total of 328 CHB subjects were analyzed. Subjects were randomly assigned into 2 groups: the training group (n = 164) and the validation group (n = 164). Using data from the training group, we built a predictive model for liver carcinogenesis by performing univariate and multivariate analyses using variables associated with liver carcinogenesis. We subsequently assessed the applicability of the constructed model in the validation group.The median (range) follow-up periods in the training and the validation groups were 5.03 years (1.03-9.98) and 4.84 years (1.10-9.97), respectively. The proportion of hepatitis B virus-DNA at 24 weeks <1.9 log IU/mL in the training group was 70.7% (116/164), while that in the validation group was 71.3% (117/164). For the entire cohort (n = 328), the median alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) value at 24 weeks (3.45 ng/mL; range, 0.9-102.7 ng/mL) significantly decreased compared to the baseline values (5.55 ng/mL; range, 0.9-1039.5 ng/mL), while the median alanine aminotransferase (ALT) value at 24 weeks (24 IU/mL; range, 6-251 IU/mL) also significantly decreased compared to baseline values (57 IU/mL; range, 7-1450 IU/mL). During the observation period, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developed in 15 (9.1%) patients in the training group and in 17 (10.4%) patients in the validation group. The 3- and 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates in the entire cohort were 4.48% and 9.52%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis of the training group, age ≥54 years (P = 0.0273), ALT level at 24 weeks (P = 0.0456), and AFP at 24 weeks (P = 0.0485) were found to be significant predictors linked to HCC. Using these independent predictors, the risk for HCC development was well stratified in the validation group (overall significance, P < 0.0001). Similar results were observed in subgroup analyses of patients with or without cirrhosis and HBe antigen positivity.In conclusion, our predictive model was well verified; hence, it may be a promising model for the prediction of the development of liver carcinogenesis in CHB patients undergoing ETV therapy.

journal_name

Medicine (Baltimore)

journal_title

Medicine

authors

Nishikawa H,Nishijima N,Enomoto H,Sakamoto A,Nasu A,Komekado H,Nishimura T,Kita R,Kimura T,Iijima H,Nishiguchi S,Osaki Y

doi

10.1097/MD.0000000000004832

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-09-01 00:00:00

pages

e4832

issue

eissn

0025-7974

issn

1536-5964

pii

00005792-201609060-00070

journal_volume

pub_type

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A predictive model for carcinogenesis in patients with chronic hepatitis B undergoing entecavir therapy and its validation.