Abstract:
:Monte Carlo simulations were performed to analyze the degree to which two-, three- and four-step learning histories of losses and gains correlated with escalation and persistence in extended extinction (continuous loss) conditions. Simulated learning histories were randomly generated at varying lengths and compositions and warranted probabilities were determined using Bayesian Updating methods. Bayesian Updating predicted instances where particular learning sequences were more likely to engender escalation and persistence under extinction conditions. All simulations revealed greater rates of escalation and persistence in the presence of heterogeneous (e.g., both Wins and Losses) lag sequences, with substantially increased rates of escalation when lags comprised predominantly of losses were followed by wins. These methods were then applied to human investment choices in earlier experiments. The Bayesian Updating models corresponded with data obtained from these experiments. These findings suggest that Bayesian Updating can be utilized as a model for understanding how and when individual commitment may escalate and persist despite continued failures.
journal_name
Behav Processesjournal_title
Behavioural processesauthors
Gilroy SP,Hantula DAdoi
10.1016/j.beproc.2016.02.017subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2016-06-01 00:00:00pages
43-51eissn
0376-6357issn
1872-8308pii
S0376-6357(16)30038-9journal_volume
127pub_type
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journal_title:Behavioural processes
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