Abstract:
OBJECTIVES:Knowledge of the secondary attack rate (SAR) and serial interval (SI) of influenza is important for assessing the severity of seasonal epidemics of the virus. To date, such estimates have required extensive surveys of target populations. Here, we propose a method for estimating the intrafamily SAR and SI from postings on the Twitter social network. This estimate is derived from a large number of people reporting ILI symptoms in them and\or their immediate family members. DESIGN:We analyze data from the 2012-2013 and the 2013-2014 influenza seasons in England and find that increases in the estimated SAR precede increases in ILI rates reported by physicians. RESULTS:We hypothesize that observed variations in the peak value of SAR are related to the appearance of specific strains of the virus and demonstrate this by comparing the changes in SAR values over time in relation to known virology. In addition, we estimate SI (the average time between cases) as 2·41 days for 2012 and 2·48 days for 2013. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed method can assist health authorities by providing near-real-time estimation of SAR and SI, and especially in alerting to sudden increases thereof.
journal_name
Influenza Other Respir Virusesjournal_title
Influenza and other respiratory virusesauthors
Yom-Tov E,Johansson-Cox I,Lampos V,Hayward ACdoi
10.1111/irv.12321subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2015-07-01 00:00:00pages
191-9issue
4eissn
1750-2640issn
1750-2659journal_volume
9pub_type
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
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pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00265.x
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
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doi:10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00398.x
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2013-09-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
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更新日期:2013-09-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Influenza and other respiratory viruses
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2012-11-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00