Abstract:
:The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.
journal_name
Naturejournal_title
Natureauthors
Carslaw KS,Lee LA,Reddington CL,Pringle KJ,Rap A,Forster PM,Mann GW,Spracklen DV,Woodhouse MT,Regayre LA,Pierce JRdoi
10.1038/nature12674subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-11-07 00:00:00pages
67-71issue
7474eissn
0028-0836issn
1476-4687pii
nature12674journal_volume
503pub_type
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