Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Existing models developed to predict 30 days readmissions for pneumonia lack discriminative ability. We attempted to increase model performance with the addition of variables found to be of benefit in other studies. METHODS:From 133,368 admissions to a tertiary-care hospital from January 2009 to March 2012, the study cohort consisted of 956 index admissions for pneumonia, using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services definition. We collected variables previously reported to be associated with 30-day all-cause readmission, including vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory values, demographics, socioeconomic indicators, and indicators of hospital utilization. Separate logistic regression models were developed to identify the predictors of all-cause hospital readmission 30 days after discharge from the index pneumonia admission for pneumonia-related readmissions, and for pneumonia-unrelated readmissions. RESULTS:Of the 965 index admissions for pneumonia, 148 (15.5%) subjects were readmitted within 30 days. The variables in the multivariate-model that were significantly associated with 30-day all-cause readmission were male sex (odds ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.03-2.45), 3 or more previous admissions (odds ratio 1.84, 95% CI 1.22-2.78), chronic lung disease (odds ratio 1.63, 95% CI 1.07-2.48), cancer (odds ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.24-3.84), median income < $43,000 (odds ratio 1.82, 95% CI 1.18-2.81), history of anxiety or depression (odds ratio 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.52), and hematocrit < 30% (odds ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.22). The model performance, as measured by the C statistic, was 0.71 (0.66-0.75), with minimal optimism according to bootstrap re-sampling (optimism corrected C statistic 0.67). CONCLUSIONS:The addition of socioeconomic status and healthcare utilization variables significantly improved model performance, compared to the model using only the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services variables.
journal_name
Respir Carejournal_title
Respiratory careauthors
Mather JF,Fortunato GJ,Ash JL,Davis MJ,Kumar Adoi
10.4187/respcare.02563subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2014-02-01 00:00:00pages
199-208issue
2eissn
0020-1324issn
1943-3654pii
respcare.02563journal_volume
59pub_type
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