Case-mix adjusted hospital mortality is a poor proxy for preventable mortality: a modelling study.

Abstract:

:Risk-adjustment schemes are used to monitor hospital performance, on the assumption that excess mortality not explained by case mix is largely attributable to suboptimal care. We have developed a model to estimate the proportion of the variation in standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) that can be accounted for by variation in preventable mortality. The model was populated with values from the literature to estimate a predictive value of the SMR in this context-specifically the proportion of those hospitals with SMRs among the highest 2.5% that fall among the worst 2.5% for preventable mortality. The extent to which SMRs reflect preventable mortality rates is highly sensitive to the proportion of deaths that are preventable. If 6% of hospital deaths are preventable (as suggested by the literature), the predictive value of the SMR can be no greater than 9%. This value could rise to 30%, if 15% of deaths are preventable. The model offers a 'reality check' for case mix adjustment schemes designed to isolate the preventable component of any outcome rate.

journal_name

BMJ Qual Saf

journal_title

BMJ quality & safety

authors

Girling AJ,Hofer TP,Wu J,Chilton PJ,Nicholl JP,Mohammed MA,Lilford RJ

doi

10.1136/bmjqs-2012-001202

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-12-01 00:00:00

pages

1052-6

issue

12

eissn

2044-5415

issn

2044-5423

pii

bmjqs-2012-001202

journal_volume

21

pub_type

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