Abstract：
:Vulnerability assessment is considered an effective tool in establishing monitoring networks required for controlling potential pollution. The aim of this work is to propose a new integrated methodology to assess actual and forecasted groundwater vulnerability by including land-use change impact on groundwater quality. Land-use changes were simulated by applying a spatial dynamics model in a scenario of agricultural expansion. Groundwater vulnerability methodology DRASTIC-P, was modifyed by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability within a future scenario. This new groundwater vulnerability methodology shows the areas where agricultural activities increase the potential level of groundwater vulnerability to pollution. The Dulce Creek Basin was the study case proposed for the application of this methodology. The study revealed that the area with Very High vulnerability would increase 20% by the year 2020 in the Dulce Creek Basin. This result can be explained by analyzing the land-use map simulated by the Dyna-CLUE model for the year 2020, which shows that the areas with increments in crop and pasture coincide with the area defined by the Very High aquifer vulnerability category in the year 2020. Through scenario analysis, land-use change models can help to identify medium or long term critical locations in the face of environmental change.
journal_name
Environ Managejournal_title
Environmental managementauthors
Lima ML,Zelaya K,Massone Hdoi
10.1007/s00267-011-9652-1subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2011-05-01 00:00:00pages
828-39issue
5eissn
0364-152Xissn
1432-1009journal_volume
47pub_type
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