Abstract:
:The high variability in survival over the past three decades of north-west Pacific Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha is summarized for 24 stocks and analysed using hierarchical Bayesian models. Results from a simple model indicate that recruitment anomalies appear to be correlated in time and space. A simple model with a covariate based on basin-scale effects (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation) and local-scale effects (sea surface temperature, SST anomaly) was introduced to explain this variability. The model still exhibited residual patterns that were removed when a random-walk component was added to the model. The analysis indicates that recruitment is negatively related to SST anomaly for all stocks and the effect of basin-scale variables is negligible. The effect of climate over the next century is expected to result in estimated recruitment declining by an average of 13% for O. tshawytscha stocks coastwide.
journal_name
J Fish Bioljournal_title
Journal of fish biologyauthors
Sharma R,Liermann Mdoi
10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02779.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2010-11-01 00:00:00pages
1948-63issue
8eissn
0022-1112issn
1095-8649journal_volume
77pub_type
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